* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/20/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 99 103 104 105 103 98 84 65 46 42 47 41 35 34 37 34 V (KT) LAND 95 99 103 104 105 103 98 84 65 46 42 47 41 35 34 37 34 V (KT) LGEM 95 98 101 104 105 103 96 80 61 45 38 33 28 26 28 31 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 11 19 19 26 36 44 53 75 72 44 25 15 4 9 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 0 -2 4 2 -2 8 10 4 3 1 -2 15 8 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 241 249 268 265 250 227 243 219 223 228 223 213 205 269 31 51 8 SST (C) 30.1 29.7 29.3 29.1 28.5 27.8 27.5 25.7 23.0 17.5 18.5 15.9 13.6 13.9 13.7 13.8 14.6 POT. INT. (KT) 172 164 158 155 146 136 133 115 97 79 81 74 69 67 66 66 68 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -49.9 -49.8 -49.7 -49.4 -48.9 -48.3 -47.7 -46.6 -45.8 -45.5 -44.2 -43.9 -44.6 -43.9 -43.6 -43.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.2 2.2 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.5 1.1 2.5 2.0 2.5 2.3 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 7 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 69 68 69 73 62 50 35 36 36 34 33 37 55 67 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 44 46 47 47 49 53 54 52 47 41 43 47 41 36 34 34 31 850 MB ENV VOR 50 57 73 65 97 119 137 153 136 169 218 210 190 205 240 294 234 200 MB DIV 46 40 28 40 66 98 125 13 0 -6 15 -2 19 28 18 49 6 700-850 TADV 11 13 21 22 26 8 -8 -41 -40 -89 -43 -22 -21 17 15 4 7 LAND (KM) 629 525 425 377 350 552 520 515 524 467 921 1391 1255 1021 913 769 544 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.7 31.8 33.1 34.4 36.5 38.4 40.3 42.0 44.4 47.4 50.1 52.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.7 73.7 73.6 72.9 72.2 69.3 65.6 60.8 54.9 48.0 40.4 33.9 28.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 14 15 16 19 22 25 29 28 22 16 10 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 27 22 21 30 18 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 11 CX,CY: -2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 4. -0. -7. -17. -26. -34. -41. -46. -47. -48. -49. -51. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -10. -11. -13. -13. -10. -6. -3. 2. 7. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. -21. -26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 7. -0. -9. -7. -2. -11. -19. -21. -20. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 9. 10. 8. 3. -11. -30. -49. -53. -48. -54. -60. -61. -58. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 29.6 73.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/20/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.60 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 362.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.55 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.34 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 15.2% 11.2% 8.8% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.7% 9.8% 6.4% 4.5% 1.9% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 10.8% 1.1% 0.6% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.4% 8.7% 6.0% 5.1% 3.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 7.7% 6.3% 4.0% 3.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/20/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/20/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 25( 38) 27( 55) 25( 66) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 9 1( 10) 0( 10) 0( 10) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 99 103 104 105 103 98 84 65 46 42 47 41 35 34 37 34 18HR AGO 95 94 98 99 100 98 93 79 60 41 37 42 36 30 29 32 29 12HR AGO 95 92 91 92 93 91 86 72 53 34 30 35 29 23 22 25 22 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 86 84 79 65 46 27 23 28 22 16 15 18 15 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 74 69 55 36 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 99 90 84 81 77 72 58 39 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 99 103 94 88 84 79 65 46 27 23 28 22 16 15 18 15