* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/20/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 99 101 102 102 95 86 67 46 32 32 43 35 33 29 23 20 V (KT) LAND 95 99 101 102 102 95 86 67 46 32 32 43 35 33 29 23 20 V (KT) LGEM 95 99 102 103 102 97 85 67 49 38 34 32 29 28 28 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 13 18 17 17 28 40 51 69 76 56 40 23 14 2 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 -1 -2 4 5 3 3 8 7 -2 -1 -2 0 -4 0 3 -4 SHEAR DIR 274 276 262 245 221 233 219 226 219 225 210 202 159 120 66 305 353 SST (C) 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.4 28.2 28.4 27.0 25.3 16.0 18.7 16.3 14.7 14.0 14.4 14.5 14.3 14.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 158 153 144 142 145 128 113 76 81 76 72 69 66 65 67 67 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -49.4 -49.2 -49.0 -48.5 -48.9 -47.8 -47.7 -46.8 -45.8 -45.3 -44.0 -42.9 -43.5 -44.3 -42.9 -43.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.8 1.3 0.8 1.4 0.4 0.2 2.1 3.8 4.0 3.2 2.0 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 5 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 69 67 54 41 37 41 40 34 38 43 56 64 68 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 46 47 47 50 51 51 53 47 42 39 41 48 41 38 34 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR 62 75 68 98 112 126 127 120 138 165 197 223 272 260 262 321 276 200 MB DIV 60 48 21 32 83 120 70 -7 14 -10 -10 21 26 29 33 28 6 700-850 TADV 12 29 18 18 17 -1 -57 -42 -96 -78 -108 -47 -41 -11 -19 -5 0 LAND (KM) 527 434 370 382 446 508 495 541 387 705 1234 1348 986 822 785 685 535 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 32.0 33.2 34.4 35.5 37.6 39.5 41.3 43.6 46.1 48.7 51.2 53.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.6 73.3 72.9 71.8 70.8 67.3 63.0 57.3 50.7 43.6 36.1 29.8 25.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 16 18 21 25 28 28 26 21 14 6 4 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 28 25 22 21 26 26 13 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 3. 3. -2. -10. -20. -28. -38. -44. -47. -49. -51. -52. -55. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -17. -12. -6. -3. 2. 7. 13. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -14. -17. -19. -23. -28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. -1. -9. -16. -13. -4. -15. -19. -24. -31. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 7. 0. -9. -28. -49. -63. -63. -52. -60. -62. -66. -72. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 30.7 73.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/20/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.55 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 366.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.55 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.36 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 15.2% 11.3% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.9% 5.9% 3.7% 1.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 13.8% 0.3% 0.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.9% 7.2% 5.1% 4.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 6.4% 4.6% 3.0% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/20/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/20/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 23( 36) 24( 51) 17( 60) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 7 0( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 99 101 102 102 95 86 67 46 32 32 43 35 33 29 23 20 18HR AGO 95 94 96 97 97 90 81 62 41 27 27 38 30 28 24 18 15 12HR AGO 95 92 91 92 92 85 76 57 36 22 22 33 25 23 19 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 85 78 69 50 29 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 69 60 41 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 99 90 84 81 75 66 47 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 99 101 92 86 82 73 54 33 19 19 30 22 20 16 DIS DIS