* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/21/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 97 97 96 89 74 56 34 32 44 36 27 21 17 22 17 V (KT) LAND 95 95 97 97 96 89 74 56 34 32 44 36 27 21 17 22 17 V (KT) LGEM 95 96 97 97 96 89 74 57 42 37 34 28 24 24 25 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 14 15 23 29 48 55 69 70 44 24 16 17 13 16 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 4 1 6 3 8 6 4 4 -2 -5 -3 0 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 264 249 227 207 216 225 222 218 214 217 200 170 145 118 71 355 309 SST (C) 29.3 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.9 26.4 25.6 22.9 21.7 17.8 15.4 14.2 14.5 14.2 13.9 13.4 13.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 148 143 137 138 121 114 97 92 80 74 70 68 66 65 65 65 200 MB T (C) -49.1 -49.0 -49.0 -48.4 -48.5 -47.8 -47.3 -47.0 -46.5 -45.6 -45.4 -44.2 -42.6 -42.6 -42.1 -42.5 -43.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.6 -0.4 1.0 4.0 4.4 3.6 3.2 3.9 3.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 67 68 65 57 48 38 41 40 45 43 53 54 53 56 61 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 46 48 50 52 53 53 50 46 40 43 52 45 38 32 29 30 25 850 MB ENV VOR 71 68 104 113 112 126 131 121 144 192 210 246 286 264 295 241 213 200 MB DIV 46 24 67 103 92 111 30 -4 24 19 38 75 75 37 23 1 -29 700-850 TADV 21 15 5 -4 -16 -18 -37 -50 -135 -86 -79 -36 -8 -23 2 -7 -7 LAND (KM) 410 386 390 499 532 536 528 482 549 1070 1394 961 739 632 605 635 502 LAT (DEG N) 32.3 33.5 34.7 35.8 36.9 38.7 40.4 42.3 44.6 47.6 51.0 53.5 54.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.2 72.4 71.6 70.2 68.8 65.0 60.1 54.2 46.6 38.4 30.4 24.6 21.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 16 17 19 23 27 31 32 26 17 10 6 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 21 21 28 29 12 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 14 CX,CY: 2/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -13. -23. -31. -41. -46. -50. -52. -53. -54. -56. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. -18. -11. -5. -1. 3. 8. 14. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -15. -18. -21. -25. -30. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. -2. -12. -9. 3. -8. -19. -26. -30. -28. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 1. -6. -21. -39. -61. -63. -51. -59. -68. -74. -78. -73. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 32.3 73.2 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/21/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.52 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 399.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.51 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.44 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 12.5% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 5.3% 3.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 5.9% 4.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.3% 3.4% 2.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/21/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/21/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 20( 34) 19( 46) 11( 52) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 95 97 97 96 89 74 56 34 32 44 36 27 21 17 22 17 18HR AGO 95 94 96 96 95 88 73 55 33 31 43 35 26 20 16 21 16 12HR AGO 95 92 91 91 90 83 68 50 28 26 38 30 21 15 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 84 77 62 44 22 20 32 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 69 54 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 95 86 80 77 72 57 39 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 95 97 88 82 78 63 45 23 21 33 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS