* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/21/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 89 88 88 78 62 40 25 36 35 25 21 17 16 19 16 V (KT) LAND 90 89 89 88 88 78 62 40 25 36 35 25 21 17 16 19 16 V (KT) LGEM 90 89 89 88 88 80 64 46 37 33 27 22 20 21 23 24 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 15 20 24 39 52 66 76 56 31 22 18 12 19 19 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 8 5 2 6 7 12 4 2 -2 -2 0 -4 2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 250 227 212 210 228 227 221 212 222 208 185 166 154 38 340 311 298 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.8 28.4 27.0 25.7 16.5 19.8 16.4 15.6 14.6 14.5 14.2 13.8 13.8 13.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 142 140 136 145 128 116 77 85 76 73 69 66 64 64 64 65 200 MB T (C) -49.2 -49.4 -48.5 -48.1 -48.5 -47.3 -46.8 -47.1 -46.0 -45.5 -44.0 -43.5 -43.7 -43.0 -42.4 -43.0 -43.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.6 2.7 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.5 3.0 3.2 2.1 3.0 5.0 5.1 3.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 68 65 59 51 40 35 35 39 38 47 48 46 56 67 69 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 46 47 49 51 53 53 49 42 40 50 46 37 33 28 27 27 23 850 MB ENV VOR 76 99 113 117 127 143 125 153 191 251 263 270 243 265 240 218 208 200 MB DIV 21 77 108 80 139 80 -19 17 9 35 59 52 36 44 5 13 -33 700-850 TADV 9 9 11 -4 16 -22 -21 -72 -73 -51 -26 -10 -9 18 -5 0 -2 LAND (KM) 365 390 463 542 502 492 531 426 769 1316 1202 856 732 683 677 633 587 LAT (DEG N) 33.6 34.7 35.8 36.8 37.7 39.5 41.2 43.2 45.7 48.5 51.3 53.5 54.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.6 71.6 70.6 68.9 67.2 63.1 57.7 50.7 42.9 35.0 27.7 23.0 21.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 17 18 20 25 29 30 29 23 13 7 4 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 29 29 25 12 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 15 CX,CY: 4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -4. -13. -22. -30. -38. -43. -47. -48. -49. -50. -52. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -17. -20. -24. -19. -12. -5. -2. 2. 6. 12. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. -25. -30. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -8. -12. 0. -6. -21. -27. -32. -33. -32. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -12. -28. -50. -65. -54. -55. -65. -69. -73. -74. -71. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 33.6 72.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/21/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.42 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 411.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.50 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.52 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 10.7% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.1% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 2.5% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/21/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/21/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 11( 22) 11( 30) 6( 34) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 89 89 88 88 78 62 40 25 36 35 25 21 17 16 19 16 18HR AGO 90 89 89 88 88 78 62 40 25 36 35 25 21 17 16 19 16 12HR AGO 90 87 86 85 85 75 59 37 22 33 32 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 80 70 54 32 17 28 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 61 45 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 89 80 74 71 65 49 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 89 89 80 74 70 54 32 17 28 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS