* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/21/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 88 87 83 66 45 26 25 30 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 89 88 87 83 66 45 26 25 30 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 89 88 87 83 70 53 40 33 28 23 20 20 21 23 24 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 22 28 39 49 59 76 62 33 24 22 11 10 13 19 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 8 9 4 2 9 14 8 1 -3 -3 -1 -2 4 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 230 218 198 222 228 219 219 216 201 180 166 152 110 15 343 337 338 SST (C) 28.3 27.8 28.1 28.2 25.9 25.8 22.8 19.6 16.3 13.8 13.7 12.9 12.3 13.0 13.9 13.8 13.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 136 141 143 116 117 97 85 77 71 69 65 63 64 65 65 65 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -48.7 -48.3 -48.8 -48.3 -47.2 -46.9 -46.4 -45.6 -44.8 -43.1 -42.7 -42.2 -42.5 -44.5 -45.5 -44.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.3 1.5 2.3 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.6 2.5 3.7 3.0 2.1 3.9 3.5 3.2 2.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 65 57 51 47 35 38 41 42 47 57 54 60 55 63 62 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 47 48 51 51 54 51 47 43 48 48 39 33 29 28 28 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR 103 110 109 128 127 144 158 173 240 261 300 305 281 212 177 163 162 200 MB DIV 88 120 88 131 128 18 2 22 20 78 72 45 23 -7 10 -7 9 700-850 TADV 11 16 -7 7 -26 -46 -40 -97 -107 -9 -25 -18 11 14 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 375 499 518 497 523 518 450 666 1234 1309 964 798 681 659 600 490 432 LAT (DEG N) 34.9 36.0 37.1 38.0 38.9 40.7 42.6 45.2 48.6 51.8 54.5 56.4 57.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.7 70.2 68.7 66.6 64.6 59.5 52.7 44.6 36.1 29.4 24.8 22.2 21.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 18 18 20 25 30 32 30 23 16 8 4 5 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 30 29 25 11 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 16 CX,CY: 7/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -1. -6. -15. -23. -31. -38. -42. -45. -45. -44. -44. -46. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -11. -18. -24. -27. -28. -19. -10. -4. -0. 4. 8. 14. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -12. -16. -20. -22. -26. -31. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 4. 2. -3. -9. -3. -4. -18. -28. -33. -34. -34. -36. -38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -7. -24. -45. -64. -65. -60. -67. -73. -75. -74. -71. -70. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 34.9 71.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/21/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 415.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.64 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 1.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 4.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.8% 2.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/21/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/21/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 11( 22) 9( 29) 3( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 89 88 87 83 66 45 26 25 30 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 88 87 83 66 45 26 25 30 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 85 81 64 43 24 23 28 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 76 59 38 19 18 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 54 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 89 80 74 71 61 40 21 20 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 89 88 79 73 69 48 29 28 33 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS