* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/21/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 84 81 75 57 34 16 22 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 84 84 81 75 57 34 16 22 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 84 83 81 75 61 44 33 29 26 22 21 22 22 22 22 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 25 38 44 51 65 75 48 24 14 14 11 9 22 18 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 5 1 3 9 12 -4 4 -1 -4 -5 -6 4 -2 -5 6 SHEAR DIR 218 202 218 225 225 223 216 218 202 168 147 121 84 12 304 277 210 SST (C) 27.8 28.1 28.0 26.0 26.4 23.0 19.6 18.3 14.1 14.5 14.0 13.3 13.5 13.4 13.2 13.2 13.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 141 140 117 122 98 84 81 72 70 67 65 64 64 64 64 64 200 MB T (C) -48.8 -48.4 -48.9 -48.8 -47.8 -47.4 -46.8 -46.1 -46.3 -44.8 -43.3 -43.5 -43.9 -44.5 -45.2 -47.1 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.4 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.0 0.8 3.5 4.2 4.7 4.0 5.7 4.5 1.8 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 57 52 48 42 42 44 46 42 55 61 64 59 61 60 50 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 47 50 51 52 52 49 44 40 48 47 40 35 31 29 25 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 112 103 118 123 136 145 149 204 220 251 305 277 251 232 217 141 16 200 MB DIV 116 96 143 122 73 3 45 5 48 73 54 25 -2 4 -26 -58 -42 700-850 TADV 11 -5 -3 -31 -41 -61 -123 -119 -100 -32 -17 -1 0 6 -15 -12 8 LAND (KM) 508 548 515 515 489 542 494 986 1489 1082 884 770 703 644 566 480 415 LAT (DEG N) 35.9 37.0 38.0 39.1 40.1 41.9 44.6 47.8 50.8 53.4 55.4 56.6 57.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.1 68.2 66.3 64.0 61.8 55.3 47.4 39.5 31.7 26.4 23.5 21.6 20.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 20 20 23 29 32 30 25 17 10 6 4 4 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 28 27 26 11 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 17 CX,CY: 13/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -7. -15. -22. -28. -34. -37. -40. -40. -40. -39. -40. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -11. -18. -23. -27. -26. -16. -8. -2. 1. 4. 8. 13. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -12. -16. -20. -22. -27. -31. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. -0. -5. -12. -3. -6. -17. -24. -30. -33. -38. -41. -43. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -6. -9. -10. -9. -9. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -4. -10. -28. -51. -69. -63. -59. -63. -66. -69. -71. -74. -74. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 35.9 70.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/21/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 43.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.08 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 413.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.50 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.64 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 9.5% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 3.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 2.2% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/21/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/21/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 9( 18) 5( 22) 0( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 84 84 81 75 57 34 16 22 26 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 84 81 75 57 34 16 22 26 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 78 72 54 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 69 51 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 48 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 84 75 69 66 55 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 84 84 75 69 65 42 24 30 34 30 27 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS