* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/22/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 80 74 68 46 23 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 83 80 74 68 46 23 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 83 80 75 69 53 39 33 28 23 21 21 21 21 20 21 22 Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 26 35 43 45 56 69 60 32 18 17 15 10 11 23 21 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 3 1 5 10 7 1 0 0 -2 -6 0 0 -7 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 213 217 220 225 214 222 220 208 189 156 131 90 41 332 304 270 289 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 26.5 26.2 26.5 19.4 17.9 16.0 13.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.3 13.1 13.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 123 120 124 84 80 75 71 69 65 62 62 65 64 62 61 200 MB T (C) -48.5 -48.9 -48.8 -47.9 -47.3 -47.1 -46.4 -45.9 -46.1 -44.1 -43.9 -44.6 -44.2 -44.2 -46.4 -47.7 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 2.0 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.2 4.5 3.8 4.6 6.4 6.2 3.8 2.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 53 50 46 41 44 45 44 48 65 66 58 64 66 57 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 50 50 53 52 52 47 42 46 48 41 34 33 30 26 19 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 103 114 121 130 138 154 165 203 240 263 280 245 237 216 174 84 10 200 MB DIV 101 147 124 75 31 18 13 8 80 73 45 8 18 1 -43 -31 -32 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -39 -46 -64 -89 -130 -135 -47 -49 1 -4 -9 3 -5 -1 6 LAND (KM) 566 543 519 545 546 426 764 1307 1232 887 763 715 722 689 593 549 560 LAT (DEG N) 36.8 38.0 39.1 40.0 40.8 43.0 46.4 49.3 52.4 54.9 56.4 57.0 56.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.1 65.9 63.6 61.0 58.3 51.4 42.7 35.1 28.4 23.6 21.2 20.2 20.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 21 21 22 25 32 32 28 23 14 7 2 1 5 5 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 13 7 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 17 CX,CY: 14/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -8. -16. -23. -28. -35. -39. -42. -42. -41. -40. -41. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -13. -21. -27. -28. -24. -14. -6. 0. 3. 6. 9. 15. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -16. -20. -22. -26. -30. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. -4. -11. -8. -7. -18. -29. -32. -36. -41. -49. -47. -47. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -11. -17. -39. -62. -69. -65. -70. -75. -74. -78. -82. -88. -83. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 36.8 68.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/22/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 47.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 444.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/22/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/22/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 7( 16) 3( 19) 0( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 83 80 74 68 46 23 16 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 81 75 69 47 24 17 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 75 69 47 24 17 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 69 47 24 17 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 44 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 83 74 68 65 53 30 23 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT