* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/22/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 73 68 59 38 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 77 73 68 59 38 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 77 73 69 62 45 34 30 27 23 22 22 22 21 20 20 20 Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 34 36 42 50 63 70 44 25 18 17 10 8 21 48 55 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 9 -2 5 -2 -4 -6 -6 -4 0 4 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 228 224 221 222 225 217 218 199 166 129 111 77 355 331 316 302 289 SST (C) 28.1 26.4 26.7 26.4 23.5 20.2 18.0 14.0 14.5 14.2 13.0 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.1 14.0 14.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 122 125 123 101 87 80 72 71 68 64 62 64 63 64 66 68 200 MB T (C) -49.0 -48.9 -48.0 -47.7 -47.7 -46.9 -45.6 -46.0 -44.8 -43.0 -43.2 -43.2 -43.6 -45.2 -47.1 -46.7 -45.4 200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.5 1.5 4.2 5.1 5.0 6.1 5.5 5.1 2.8 2.6 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 49 44 41 42 41 47 41 51 59 63 60 62 61 58 55 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 49 52 51 51 49 44 38 46 46 40 36 32 28 22 17 11 14 850 MB ENV VOR 120 124 135 132 140 158 197 214 238 284 268 250 210 203 155 136 177 200 MB DIV 129 117 78 7 7 36 7 41 77 52 27 4 -8 -31 -47 -22 -11 700-850 TADV 7 -39 -56 -63 -46 -120 -129 -100 -46 -23 1 1 4 -6 -16 -9 -12 LAND (KM) 514 538 536 540 557 507 1030 1496 1047 838 683 622 691 682 651 546 368 LAT (DEG N) 37.9 38.9 39.8 40.8 41.8 44.5 47.9 50.8 53.5 55.7 57.4 57.9 57.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.5 64.0 61.4 58.5 55.5 47.3 38.9 31.8 25.9 22.7 21.7 21.0 20.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 22 23 24 29 33 31 25 18 12 6 2 4 2 3 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 26 13 10 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 18 CX,CY: 15/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -15. -21. -25. -31. -33. -36. -35. -34. -33. -34. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -9. -13. -21. -25. -25. -21. -12. -4. 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -13. -18. -21. -24. -28. -33. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -14. -8. -9. -19. -26. -33. -38. -45. -51. -56. -50. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -10. -9. -9. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -21. -42. -64. -62. -60. -62. -62. -66. -70. -77. -84. -87. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 37.9 66.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/22/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 51.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 437.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/22/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/22/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 4( 11) 0( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 77 73 68 59 38 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 75 70 61 40 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 71 62 41 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 61 40 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT