* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/22/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 69 61 51 28 18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 75 69 61 51 28 18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 76 71 64 56 43 37 31 26 23 22 21 20 20 19 20 20 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 36 41 47 50 62 56 29 16 15 14 8 26 54 52 57 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 2 3 10 14 4 -4 -6 -2 -2 -1 2 1 3 5 5 SHEAR DIR 228 229 230 225 226 228 213 174 133 127 110 10 313 300 290 279 273 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 26.5 23.8 22.5 19.9 16.3 14.1 14.3 13.2 13.0 13.1 13.5 14.0 14.4 15.5 16.5 POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 124 102 96 86 77 72 70 65 63 63 65 65 66 69 71 200 MB T (C) -48.6 -48.0 -47.6 -47.6 -47.3 -46.3 -45.4 -44.5 -43.4 -42.7 -43.4 -44.6 -46.0 -47.3 -47.6 -47.2 -46.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.5 0.8 0.6 3.7 5.1 4.0 5.2 6.2 4.5 3.4 3.2 2.2 2.3 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 43 38 40 39 37 40 47 58 67 67 56 56 59 57 55 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 53 52 51 49 46 40 45 49 42 37 31 27 23 18 15 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 136 138 127 145 152 155 207 239 274 276 233 172 152 138 139 185 204 200 MB DIV 135 61 8 19 -2 14 16 66 64 29 9 -36 -31 -42 -21 9 -18 700-850 TADV -21 -23 -20 -53 -32 -79 -104 -47 -29 -11 3 4 9 23 23 9 -20 LAND (KM) 567 548 559 590 482 770 1351 1196 848 723 615 601 667 611 491 318 74 LAT (DEG N) 38.5 39.5 40.5 41.5 42.4 45.3 48.8 52.0 54.9 57.0 58.0 58.1 57.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.6 61.7 58.8 55.3 51.8 43.1 34.5 27.8 23.0 21.2 21.4 21.1 19.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 24 26 28 31 34 30 23 16 8 3 3 5 5 7 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 17 CX,CY: 15/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -2. -4. -10. -16. -21. -26. -33. -35. -38. -37. -35. -34. -36. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -14. -22. -26. -22. -18. -9. -2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 13. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -14. -18. -21. -23. -28. -32. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -11. -8. -19. -29. -38. -45. -50. -55. -58. -61. -58. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -19. -29. -52. -62. -60. -68. -72. -76. -80. -86. -90. -93. -93. -85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 38.5 64.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/22/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 55.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 466.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.45 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/22/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/22/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 3( 10) 0( 10) 0( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 75 69 61 51 28 18 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 73 65 55 32 22 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 68 58 35 25 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 60 37 27 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT