* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/22/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 69 57 46 26 24 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 76 69 57 46 26 24 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 77 71 61 52 41 37 31 27 24 23 22 21 20 20 22 29 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 32 37 44 51 53 62 41 23 20 19 7 20 27 41 69 40 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 2 6 13 2 1 -3 0 -1 -3 0 1 5 0 4 6 SHEAR DIR 225 221 220 224 226 230 210 168 132 111 36 328 326 334 315 289 298 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 23.4 20.0 22.6 16.7 15.0 14.1 13.4 13.0 13.0 13.5 14.5 15.9 16.6 17.4 17.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 100 86 98 79 74 70 67 62 63 66 68 69 70 73 73 200 MB T (C) -48.2 -47.9 -47.8 -47.4 -47.3 -45.9 -45.8 -44.8 -43.4 -42.8 -42.9 -44.1 -45.3 -46.8 -49.5 -47.7 -46.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.7 1.7 4.1 5.0 4.2 6.6 5.9 4.8 3.8 0.7 2.6 3.9 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 42 39 40 41 38 45 48 53 62 66 61 59 65 61 55 50 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 50 49 49 45 42 38 47 46 40 35 31 27 23 20 12 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 138 130 136 142 143 173 174 233 266 299 220 145 189 195 145 216 238 200 MB DIV 58 27 5 -9 25 4 41 97 64 19 -23 -26 -21 -52 -12 0 8 700-850 TADV -30 -40 -50 -78 -85 -94 -92 -47 -27 2 3 11 12 -1 15 -13 -8 LAND (KM) 572 604 595 514 623 1257 1215 861 702 580 657 715 422 235 146 34 37 LAT (DEG N) 39.4 40.4 41.3 42.4 43.5 47.6 51.3 54.3 57.1 58.2 57.6 56.8 56.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.4 58.0 54.5 50.5 46.5 35.9 27.9 23.2 20.0 19.9 21.3 20.1 15.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 26 28 30 32 37 37 26 18 11 2 4 9 11 8 7 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 12 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 24 CX,CY: 22/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -4. -6. -10. -16. -21. -26. -33. -35. -37. -36. -34. -35. -37. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -15. -22. -24. -19. -15. -6. 1. 5. 7. 8. 9. 14. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -14. -18. -22. -24. -28. -33. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -4. -7. -12. -6. -9. -18. -27. -34. -41. -46. -48. -58. -41. -42. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -10. -10. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -11. -23. -34. -54. -56. -57. -63. -67. -69. -74. -80. -83. -95. -76. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 39.4 61.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/22/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 60.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 492.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.23 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.2 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/22/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/22/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 3( 10) 0( 10) 0( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 76 69 57 46 26 24 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 72 60 49 29 27 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 64 53 33 31 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 59 39 37 36 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT