* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/23/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 74 62 50 38 27 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 74 62 50 38 27 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 75 64 54 47 39 34 28 25 23 23 22 21 20 21 26 29 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 41 49 51 55 57 50 22 14 14 18 9 19 33 31 28 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 10 11 12 -2 0 -1 -1 -2 -5 -2 2 4 4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 223 223 225 224 224 221 195 144 124 111 35 320 312 292 262 244 239 SST (C) 26.7 22.6 16.4 19.0 19.3 15.6 14.0 13.4 13.0 13.0 12.9 13.1 14.0 15.5 17.0 16.8 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 97 78 84 85 76 71 69 65 62 64 66 67 69 72 73 74 200 MB T (C) -48.0 -47.9 -47.4 -46.8 -46.2 -45.5 -45.5 -43.8 -43.4 -43.4 -43.5 -44.2 -45.3 -45.4 -44.8 -44.5 -45.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.9 3.0 4.6 4.0 4.4 6.8 4.4 2.7 3.4 4.0 3.1 3.1 TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 40 44 43 42 42 52 56 61 73 74 65 62 64 64 68 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 48 48 45 43 40 45 48 42 37 32 30 25 20 16 14 12 20 850 MB ENV VOR 124 131 141 148 163 171 194 245 273 289 231 162 190 182 247 279 142 200 MB DIV 27 4 -9 6 16 41 106 84 59 23 -26 -42 -27 -2 20 5 -3 700-850 TADV -38 -78 -94 -139 -131 -87 -35 -54 -21 4 3 1 -3 5 4 -10 -28 LAND (KM) 575 535 508 687 969 1380 906 757 446 403 553 666 438 232 46 -79 -90 LAT (DEG N) 40.7 41.8 42.9 44.5 46.0 50.5 53.7 56.7 59.4 59.8 58.5 57.4 57.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.8 53.6 49.4 44.8 40.1 30.0 23.8 21.4 19.6 19.8 20.7 19.1 14.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 29 33 35 37 38 32 20 16 8 2 6 9 11 9 10 14 18 HEAT CONTENT 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 24 CX,CY: 22/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -7. -9. -12. -17. -22. -26. -33. -34. -36. -34. -32. -32. -34. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -14. -18. -24. -21. -16. -11. -3. 4. 8. 9. 10. 12. 17. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -14. -19. -22. -25. -31. -37. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -7. -4. -2. -10. -19. -28. -32. -40. -47. -50. -53. -52. -41. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -11. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -18. -30. -42. -53. -54. -59. -65. -69. -68. -73. -80. -84. -87. -86. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 40.7 57.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/23/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 71.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 456.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/23/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/23/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 0( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 74 62 50 38 27 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 67 55 43 32 31 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 64 52 41 40 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 58 47 46 41 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT