* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * FERNAND AL062025 08/25/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 44 42 39 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 44 42 39 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 45 43 40 35 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 13 16 15 11 8 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 1 1 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 348 360 8 18 37 56 176 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.3 26.6 26.4 23.8 13.9 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 129 121 120 100 70 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -54.1 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.6 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 47 50 51 54 54 44 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -91 -78 -76 -55 -50 -55 -88 -94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -29 -31 -1 16 24 69 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 20 16 16 24 16 27 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1277 1203 1137 1047 964 703 500 589 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.2 34.3 35.3 36.5 37.6 40.3 43.2 46.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.1 58.4 57.6 56.6 55.7 52.9 49.0 45.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 19 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 8 8 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 33.2 59.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062025 FERNAND 08/25/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.55 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 315.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.60 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 10.8% 7.7% 6.4% 4.9% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 4.0% 2.4% 2.2% 0.7% 5.4% 1.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.9% 3.4% 2.9% 1.8% 5.0% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 2.4% 1.7% 1.4% 0.9% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062025 FERNAND 08/25/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062025 FERNAND 08/25/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 46 44 42 39 36 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 44 42 40 37 34 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 37 34 31 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 30 27 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT