* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/19/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 47 52 58 67 73 86 96 101 100 99 87 77 71 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 47 52 58 67 73 86 96 101 100 99 87 77 71 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 46 46 50 57 66 76 90 99 93 79 63 47 36 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 10 13 11 7 7 6 7 17 33 61 69 75 63 38 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 -1 0 -2 0 0 0 -2 3 3 -7 -5 -1 1 6 -1 SHEAR DIR 273 253 243 255 267 242 258 230 259 255 229 241 251 261 260 253 248 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.7 28.5 28.2 27.3 25.9 23.4 21.7 19.1 16.1 14.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 152 152 155 155 164 145 142 132 118 99 90 80 74 71 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.8 -55.0 -54.6 -53.1 -51.8 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 52 55 56 57 64 66 72 67 60 52 37 39 31 37 42 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 13 12 14 17 20 22 29 36 42 45 51 48 42 34 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -9 -14 -35 -49 -43 -37 -27 5 28 43 100 69 -28 -30 -12 -23 200 MB DIV 8 20 43 12 6 43 26 80 52 70 103 -3 -30 6 19 26 17 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -5 -6 -4 0 -2 9 13 29 15 -20 -59 -44 -42 -8 6 LAND (KM) 829 796 778 786 809 911 1061 1241 1364 1191 1081 933 1121 1426 1707 1308 950 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.3 22.9 23.6 24.3 25.9 27.7 29.6 31.9 34.3 36.8 38.7 40.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.1 56.0 56.8 57.6 58.5 59.7 60.7 61.4 60.6 58.5 54.8 49.4 42.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 13 18 21 26 27 24 21 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 45 43 41 40 40 39 29 26 17 10 8 5 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 4. -1. -7. -12. -11. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 4. 6. 15. 25. 33. 36. 41. 35. 25. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 7. 13. 22. 28. 41. 51. 56. 55. 54. 42. 32. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.7 55.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/19/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.68 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.01 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 269.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.65 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.51 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.5% 8.5% 7.0% 5.7% 11.3% 13.2% 23.4% Logistic: 0.6% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 1.7% 3.1% 6.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 4.8% 3.1% 2.5% 1.9% 4.3% 5.5% 9.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% SDCON: 0.7% 3.9% 2.5% 1.7% 1.4% 3.1% 3.2% 6.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/19/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/19/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 47 47 52 58 67 73 86 96 101 100 99 87 77 71 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 46 51 57 66 72 85 95 100 99 98 86 76 70 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 42 47 53 62 68 81 91 96 95 94 82 72 66 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 40 46 55 61 74 84 89 88 87 75 65 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT