* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/19/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 50 53 59 68 77 82 89 92 89 87 88 78 69 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 50 53 59 68 77 82 89 92 89 87 88 78 69 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 47 48 53 60 70 79 87 90 77 65 55 47 38 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 11 12 9 7 5 9 14 28 31 42 57 70 41 39 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 0 -2 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 2 12 13 3 -9 12 11 7 SHEAR DIR 260 254 266 267 250 234 212 256 241 262 242 267 271 260 232 222 238 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.3 28.7 27.8 26.1 22.9 22.4 20.0 17.4 14.3 14.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 150 149 150 155 159 157 149 139 121 97 93 83 75 69 68 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -54.3 -54.8 -54.8 -54.2 -55.0 -57.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.3 2.3 1.7 1.1 0.4 -0.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 54 56 55 59 65 69 69 61 50 50 54 45 44 53 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 14 14 14 17 21 25 27 34 37 39 42 46 40 29 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -10 -25 -42 -49 -48 -25 -11 28 22 47 76 147 36 50 4 6 200 MB DIV 22 43 13 -1 24 12 55 51 69 45 89 126 55 0 42 9 51 700-850 TADV -1 -6 -4 -1 0 0 6 15 24 43 39 99 -3 -45 -40 -70 -1 LAND (KM) 770 751 749 787 828 960 1139 1354 1256 1107 911 1001 1409 1700 1390 1068 834 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.7 23.3 24.1 24.9 26.6 28.6 30.6 33.0 35.8 38.6 40.5 41.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.1 57.0 57.8 58.5 59.3 60.4 61.2 61.2 60.3 56.9 50.9 44.0 36.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 11 16 24 28 28 25 21 18 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 44 42 41 40 41 34 29 22 12 8 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 4. 1. -5. -7. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 4. 8. 11. 20. 25. 25. 27. 31. 21. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 14. 23. 32. 37. 44. 47. 44. 42. 43. 33. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 22.1 56.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/19/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.72 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.12 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.66 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.23 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.49 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 14.1% 9.6% 7.7% 6.3% 11.7% 13.9% 23.3% Logistic: 2.0% 7.9% 3.9% 3.0% 1.4% 10.4% 11.1% 13.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.1% 7.5% 4.5% 3.6% 2.6% 7.4% 8.4% 12.1% DTOPS: 5.0% 16.0% 10.0% 9.0% 4.0% 14.0% 15.0% 20.0% SDCON: 3.5% 11.7% 7.2% 6.3% 3.3% 10.7% 11.7% 16.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/19/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/19/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 48 50 53 59 68 77 82 89 92 89 87 88 78 69 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 48 51 57 66 75 80 87 90 87 85 86 76 67 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 44 47 53 62 71 76 83 86 83 81 82 72 63 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 40 46 55 64 69 76 79 76 74 75 65 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT