* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/20/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 50 55 60 68 69 71 70 67 63 59 53 54 53 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 49 50 55 60 68 69 71 70 67 63 59 53 54 53 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 48 50 55 63 70 73 71 65 58 51 45 41 38 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 9 8 9 8 17 17 28 38 45 46 44 48 50 46 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 1 0 0 0 -1 4 -4 -4 -1 0 9 12 -8 -4 SHEAR DIR 274 261 249 226 226 233 261 262 258 243 261 267 272 237 213 205 180 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.0 29.6 29.1 28.8 27.8 26.3 24.2 22.5 19.8 18.1 15.5 14.7 14.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 150 153 152 162 154 151 138 121 104 95 83 76 70 69 69 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.6 -56.0 -57.7 -56.3 -55.6 -57.2 -58.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 54 56 61 64 69 72 65 53 49 56 65 64 62 54 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 15 18 21 22 23 24 23 23 22 21 22 17 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -54 -62 -50 -50 -36 -24 0 -16 -2 18 79 73 7 -7 21 14 200 MB DIV 3 13 14 31 21 53 45 52 23 48 37 48 77 78 38 71 73 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -3 0 5 8 19 15 0 -4 -6 3 -21 -74 -72 -40 LAND (KM) 811 861 910 959 1015 1185 1392 1262 1115 955 957 1223 1643 1399 1106 854 564 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.8 25.6 26.4 27.1 29.0 31.0 33.1 35.9 38.1 39.7 41.6 43.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.7 58.4 59.0 59.6 60.3 61.1 61.4 59.8 56.3 51.8 46.1 39.4 32.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 10 10 11 16 20 22 25 28 24 18 13 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 39 40 39 35 30 28 20 11 7 7 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 6. 6. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 15. 23. 24. 26. 25. 22. 18. 14. 8. 9. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 23.9 57.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/20/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.72 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.06 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.68 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.49 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.8% 8.7% 7.2% 5.9% 11.3% 12.8% 18.8% Logistic: 1.5% 6.3% 2.7% 2.1% 1.1% 7.4% 10.9% 4.2% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 6.5% 3.9% 3.1% 2.3% 6.2% 7.9% 7.7% DTOPS: 3.0% 12.0% 8.0% 7.0% 4.0% 14.0% 20.0% 5.0% SDCON: 1.9% 9.2% 5.9% 5.0% 3.1% 10.1% 13.9% 6.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/20/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/20/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 49 50 55 60 68 69 71 70 67 63 59 53 54 53 18HR AGO 45 44 45 47 48 53 58 66 67 69 68 65 61 57 51 52 51 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 44 49 54 62 63 65 64 61 57 53 47 48 47 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 41 46 54 55 57 56 53 49 45 39 40 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT