* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/20/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 52 54 62 68 75 77 77 77 70 65 61 64 69 67 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 52 54 62 68 75 77 77 77 70 65 61 64 69 67 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 50 52 60 69 77 80 79 75 67 57 51 50 48 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 8 8 6 6 11 20 21 34 37 43 40 42 34 30 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 1 1 0 1 -2 0 0 2 5 2 -4 -4 10 9 -2 SHEAR DIR 263 236 228 227 229 221 265 259 262 268 276 289 292 281 238 215 194 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.7 29.1 28.6 27.9 27.0 26.1 25.2 23.7 22.3 20.1 18.8 17.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 155 153 155 163 153 146 138 128 119 112 100 92 82 78 76 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -54.5 -55.4 -56.0 -55.8 -54.9 -54.5 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.2 1.0 0.1 0.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 56 60 64 63 71 68 59 52 50 54 57 64 60 50 41 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 14 14 17 20 23 24 25 27 26 25 24 29 35 31 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -62 -52 -52 -53 -26 -10 1 -12 -17 11 47 111 119 127 130 134 200 MB DIV 11 6 25 2 0 59 50 27 31 23 49 35 41 51 78 4 52 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -1 0 0 4 11 14 16 24 16 21 24 26 41 -10 -5 LAND (KM) 835 879 935 997 1058 1206 1370 1253 1181 1135 1119 1316 1656 1749 1352 996 671 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.4 26.2 27.0 27.8 29.4 31.2 33.0 34.9 36.4 37.4 38.3 39.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.6 59.3 59.9 60.5 61.1 62.0 61.9 60.4 57.5 53.3 47.7 41.7 35.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 9 10 13 17 21 24 25 23 21 19 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 40 40 37 31 29 27 19 12 9 7 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -5. -7. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. 2. 5. 9. 10. 10. 14. 10. 8. 6. 12. 17. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 17. 23. 30. 32. 32. 32. 25. 20. 16. 20. 24. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 24.6 58.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/20/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.74 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.09 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 234.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.68 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.49 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 14.7% 10.2% 8.4% 6.8% 12.3% 13.9% 20.2% Logistic: 2.8% 9.6% 4.5% 3.3% 2.0% 11.6% 10.4% 7.6% Bayesian: 1.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 8.5% 5.0% 3.9% 3.0% 8.0% 8.1% 9.3% DTOPS: 6.0% 23.0% 13.0% 7.0% 5.0% 14.0% 27.0% 14.0% SDCON: 4.4% 15.7% 9.0% 5.4% 4.0% 11.0% 17.5% 11.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/20/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/20/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 50 52 54 62 68 75 77 77 77 70 65 61 64 69 67 18HR AGO 45 44 47 49 51 59 65 72 74 74 74 67 62 58 61 66 64 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 53 59 66 68 68 68 61 56 52 55 60 58 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 45 51 58 60 60 60 53 48 44 47 52 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT