* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/20/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 67 71 79 85 86 85 80 79 74 69 68 66 66 66 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 67 71 79 85 86 85 80 79 74 69 68 66 66 66 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 67 71 82 92 95 92 87 80 72 63 55 50 45 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 8 5 4 9 14 22 27 33 31 32 33 30 37 45 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 1 1 0 -5 2 0 4 6 7 1 8 7 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 251 249 251 258 260 271 274 281 255 277 284 297 276 252 234 247 258 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.7 28.7 28.4 28.1 26.5 25.9 25.3 23.3 21.2 19.8 17.9 17.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 153 153 158 163 147 144 141 123 117 112 98 87 82 76 73 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -54.3 -54.7 -55.8 -55.4 -55.7 -56.6 -57.4 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 58 61 62 65 67 64 55 52 53 55 61 57 52 38 40 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 14 15 15 19 22 23 24 25 28 29 29 31 32 32 30 850 MB ENV VOR -62 -54 -57 -48 -46 -29 -10 -22 -21 -10 27 82 63 47 23 13 7 200 MB DIV 10 14 -3 2 49 33 46 24 42 38 39 30 47 48 39 0 8 700-850 TADV 0 -3 1 2 5 10 17 25 18 26 23 27 12 20 -12 -14 -23 LAND (KM) 886 935 994 1056 1121 1282 1372 1277 1232 1157 1263 1524 1839 1549 1130 851 617 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 26.0 26.8 27.6 28.4 30.0 31.8 33.4 35.1 36.4 37.1 37.9 38.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.7 59.4 60.0 60.6 61.1 61.5 60.7 58.6 55.3 50.6 44.8 38.8 33.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 9 11 14 18 22 24 24 23 22 21 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 40 38 32 28 29 24 17 10 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 6. 7. 8. 9. 13. 14. 13. 14. 13. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 24. 30. 31. 30. 25. 24. 19. 14. 13. 11. 11. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.2 58.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/20/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.73 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 278.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.64 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.41 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 21.2% 12.9% 10.3% 8.1% 18.1% 18.4% 19.7% Logistic: 4.8% 14.8% 7.5% 3.6% 1.8% 7.3% 10.2% 4.8% Bayesian: 3.9% 5.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 14.0% 7.0% 4.7% 3.3% 8.6% 9.6% 8.1% DTOPS: 9.0% 43.0% 26.0% 19.0% 7.0% 16.0% 49.0% 7.0% SDCON: 7.0% 28.5% 16.5% 11.8% 5.1% 12.3% 29.3% 7.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/20/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/20/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 7( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 63 67 71 79 85 86 85 80 79 74 69 68 66 66 66 18HR AGO 55 54 58 62 66 74 80 81 80 75 74 69 64 63 61 61 61 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 59 67 73 74 73 68 67 62 57 56 54 54 54 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 57 63 64 63 58 57 52 47 46 44 44 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT