* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/21/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 64 68 72 74 75 74 75 70 65 65 66 68 66 66 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 64 68 72 74 75 74 75 70 65 65 66 68 66 66 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 66 70 77 81 81 81 77 70 64 60 56 53 48 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 11 8 8 16 18 19 32 37 42 40 41 31 38 18 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 1 2 -3 0 -1 1 -4 -2 -6 -1 9 5 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 243 252 258 270 242 268 264 266 271 276 287 273 244 215 210 216 320 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.7 29.2 28.8 27.8 27.7 26.1 26.2 24.6 22.7 21.5 19.9 18.0 17.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 154 153 158 163 155 149 136 136 119 120 107 95 88 81 76 74 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.6 -55.2 -54.8 -55.7 -55.2 -55.6 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.6 1.4 0.8 2.8 2.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 60 60 63 68 68 60 53 49 52 59 70 62 49 47 47 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 15 17 19 19 19 19 23 22 22 26 30 34 34 31 850 MB ENV VOR -59 -55 -59 -45 -35 -15 5 -15 -22 7 49 117 84 50 36 86 136 200 MB DIV 30 14 2 39 40 27 17 40 37 43 58 67 67 70 73 55 54 700-850 TADV -3 1 4 7 2 10 15 11 20 8 12 -7 -29 -11 -31 -21 0 LAND (KM) 940 1008 1080 1141 1206 1382 1331 1276 1235 1195 1378 1666 1806 1321 969 720 538 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.8 27.7 28.5 29.2 30.8 32.5 34.1 35.5 36.4 36.9 37.9 39.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.0 59.6 60.2 60.6 61.1 60.9 59.6 57.1 53.5 48.7 42.8 36.6 30.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 8 8 9 11 15 18 22 24 25 24 20 17 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 37 31 27 27 26 20 12 9 7 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 6. 5. 3. 7. 12. 17. 15. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 20. 19. 20. 15. 10. 10. 11. 13. 11. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.9 59.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/21/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.68 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 264.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.65 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.42 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 16.5% 11.5% 9.1% 7.1% 12.9% 14.1% 17.5% Logistic: 3.6% 11.7% 5.9% 3.2% 1.4% 6.6% 7.5% 3.0% Bayesian: 3.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 9.9% 5.9% 4.1% 2.8% 6.6% 7.2% 6.9% DTOPS: 12.0% 38.0% 26.0% 16.0% 6.0% 9.0% 13.0% 2.0% SDCON: 8.0% 23.9% 15.9% 10.0% 4.4% 7.8% 10.1% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/21/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/21/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 61 64 68 72 74 75 74 75 70 65 65 66 68 66 66 18HR AGO 55 54 57 60 64 68 70 71 70 71 66 61 61 62 64 62 62 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 58 62 64 65 64 65 60 55 55 56 58 56 56 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 53 55 56 55 56 51 46 46 47 49 47 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT