* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/21/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 65 68 75 77 81 79 77 73 69 70 66 68 71 71 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 65 68 75 77 81 79 77 73 69 70 66 68 71 71 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 63 66 73 78 79 78 74 69 63 57 51 48 44 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 9 10 15 17 20 22 30 35 43 33 26 38 43 51 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 1 0 -4 1 -1 2 0 -4 -1 7 5 -2 -5 4 SHEAR DIR 243 247 243 241 257 259 278 254 287 284 296 286 261 236 252 286 295 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.7 28.8 28.6 28.0 27.0 26.1 25.2 24.2 21.5 20.2 18.5 17.5 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 160 163 163 148 146 139 128 119 112 104 89 83 77 73 70 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -54.7 -56.1 -57.6 -58.9 -59.5 -59.1 -59.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 59 64 68 69 66 56 52 52 56 66 69 58 42 35 28 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 15 15 16 17 19 19 21 21 23 23 24 27 27 30 33 30 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -52 -34 -33 -32 3 -15 -13 -6 24 52 90 59 -31 -49 -93 -123 200 MB DIV 24 20 35 38 21 41 25 46 18 15 59 29 53 44 -5 -35 11 700-850 TADV 6 3 1 1 9 11 18 12 25 22 29 0 2 2 8 1 0 LAND (KM) 1004 1071 1138 1213 1290 1357 1249 1232 1196 1225 1475 1773 1621 1134 831 671 479 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.7 28.5 29.3 30.1 31.7 33.3 34.7 35.9 36.6 36.9 38.2 40.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.7 60.3 60.9 61.3 61.6 61.2 59.6 56.6 52.2 47.0 41.0 34.7 28.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 8 9 12 17 20 23 25 26 25 21 16 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 31 27 28 26 23 17 10 9 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 8. 10. 10. 10. 13. 11. 15. 17. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 22. 26. 24. 22. 18. 14. 15. 11. 13. 16. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 26.8 59.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/21/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.66 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.67 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.43 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 15.2% 10.3% 8.3% 6.8% 12.1% 12.0% 14.8% Logistic: 3.2% 9.2% 4.9% 2.8% 1.4% 4.5% 4.2% 1.8% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 8.3% 5.1% 3.7% 2.8% 5.5% 5.4% 5.5% DTOPS: 9.0% 21.0% 11.0% 5.0% 3.0% 16.0% 5.0% 2.0% SDCON: 5.9% 14.6% 8.0% 4.3% 2.9% 10.7% 5.2% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/21/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/21/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 61 65 68 75 77 81 79 77 73 69 70 66 68 71 71 18HR AGO 55 54 57 61 64 71 73 77 75 73 69 65 66 62 64 67 67 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 58 65 67 71 69 67 63 59 60 56 58 61 61 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 55 57 61 59 57 53 49 50 46 48 51 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT