* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/21/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 63 67 71 75 75 77 73 70 68 63 57 47 42 40 V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 63 67 71 75 75 77 73 70 68 63 57 47 42 40 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 58 61 65 71 76 79 79 75 70 62 53 45 38 32 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 8 12 12 16 13 22 27 40 41 39 35 47 55 60 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 -6 -4 0 -3 -1 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 241 243 237 259 254 255 263 265 270 282 284 285 275 268 286 300 309 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.5 28.6 28.3 28.1 26.8 26.4 25.2 23.2 21.9 20.3 19.4 18.1 17.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 161 163 159 146 142 141 126 123 112 98 90 81 79 77 76 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -55.0 -56.0 -57.0 -57.5 -58.2 -58.5 -59.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 64 67 68 67 60 54 48 52 55 64 65 56 47 51 48 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 17 19 20 21 20 24 24 25 26 25 22 18 14 9 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -34 -33 -29 -5 -2 -16 -19 0 42 87 61 8 -46 -71 -56 -93 200 MB DIV 21 38 34 11 29 15 33 17 24 18 39 43 12 5 -6 -16 -40 700-850 TADV 4 6 2 10 8 8 14 16 14 24 21 27 10 15 7 0 -12 LAND (KM) 1019 1086 1159 1242 1326 1330 1248 1263 1251 1326 1593 1910 1470 1136 957 685 419 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 28.1 28.9 29.7 30.5 32.1 33.6 34.8 35.5 36.2 37.2 38.8 40.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.7 61.2 61.7 61.8 62.0 61.0 58.8 55.3 51.0 45.4 38.6 32.2 26.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 10 14 17 20 25 27 25 20 14 14 20 22 HEAT CONTENT 29 29 28 24 21 16 9 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 6. 6. 7. 8. 5. 0. -7. -11. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 20. 20. 22. 18. 15. 13. 8. 2. -8. -13. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.3 60.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/21/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.67 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.69 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.43 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 16.6% 11.3% 9.0% 7.4% 12.7% 12.7% 14.9% Logistic: 3.5% 11.0% 5.9% 3.5% 1.9% 5.6% 4.3% 1.5% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 9.4% 5.8% 4.3% 3.1% 6.1% 5.7% 5.5% DTOPS: 10.0% 43.0% 26.0% 16.0% 9.0% 26.0% 9.0% 2.0% SDCON: 6.6% 26.2% 15.9% 10.1% 6.0% 16.0% 7.3% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/21/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/21/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 60 63 67 71 75 75 77 73 70 68 63 57 47 42 40 18HR AGO 55 54 57 60 64 68 72 72 74 70 67 65 60 54 44 39 37 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 58 62 66 66 68 64 61 59 54 48 38 33 31 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 53 57 57 59 55 52 50 45 39 29 24 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT