* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GABRIELLE AL072025 09/21/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 74 78 81 84 86 85 83 80 79 71 67 64 60 53 45 V (KT) LAND 65 69 74 78 81 84 86 85 83 80 79 71 67 64 60 53 45 V (KT) LGEM 65 70 74 78 82 86 90 90 87 83 75 63 52 45 39 33 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 12 13 13 18 11 23 24 37 43 43 57 68 58 52 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 1 0 -1 -1 4 -2 -13 -12 -15 -10 SHEAR DIR 250 250 269 273 259 273 254 273 275 283 273 267 259 262 273 293 294 SST (C) 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.7 27.8 27.4 26.2 26.0 24.2 22.4 20.5 19.4 18.2 18.7 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 159 161 159 153 148 136 133 120 119 104 93 84 79 75 74 74 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.6 -54.9 -55.8 -56.1 -56.7 -57.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.1 0.4 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 64 66 66 63 55 50 51 57 60 66 62 45 44 43 41 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 18 18 20 21 21 23 26 28 28 28 29 28 22 15 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -37 -31 -28 -5 -20 -19 -19 22 57 98 65 5 -8 5 12 5 200 MB DIV 34 28 -1 21 39 17 32 36 50 73 86 64 37 20 -18 -67 -30 700-850 TADV 3 3 13 11 12 16 15 20 8 46 32 25 16 -26 -21 -26 -11 LAND (KM) 1078 1145 1215 1304 1379 1290 1257 1246 1294 1490 1768 1751 1282 914 647 476 368 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.8 29.5 30.3 31.1 32.6 34.0 35.4 35.7 36.3 37.6 39.7 42.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.5 61.8 62.1 62.0 61.9 60.6 57.7 53.3 47.8 41.7 35.4 29.8 24.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 8 8 9 12 16 21 24 25 25 23 20 16 12 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 29 28 25 22 19 13 10 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 771 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -18. -20. -21. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 9. 13. 12. 11. 10. 8. -1. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 20. 18. 15. 14. 6. 2. -1. -5. -12. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 28.1 61.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/21/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.68 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 275.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.64 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.25 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.32 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 27.1% 19.3% 18.5% 14.7% 13.2% 13.6% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 16.8% 9.4% 4.6% 2.2% 6.8% 4.6% 1.7% Bayesian: 4.0% 4.1% 1.2% 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 16.0% 10.0% 8.6% 5.7% 6.7% 6.1% 0.6% DTOPS: 51.0% 83.0% 76.0% 64.0% 32.0% 35.0% 14.0% 1.0% SDCON: 28.5% 49.5% 43.0% 36.3% 18.8% 20.8% 10.0% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/21/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072025 GABRIELLE 09/21/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 5( 7) 8( 14) 9( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 69 74 78 81 84 86 85 83 80 79 71 67 64 60 53 45 18HR AGO 65 64 69 73 76 79 81 80 78 75 74 66 62 59 55 48 40 12HR AGO 65 62 61 65 68 71 73 72 70 67 66 58 54 51 47 40 32 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 61 63 62 60 57 56 48 44 41 37 30 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT