* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * LORENZO AL122025 10/14/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 51 50 49 47 45 45 47 49 51 53 56 59 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 51 50 49 47 45 45 47 49 51 53 56 59 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 52 52 51 51 51 52 54 56 59 62 66 69 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 5 5 9 14 17 9 3 9 7 8 7 5 10 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 1 0 -2 0 -1 -2 -4 -6 -5 -2 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 313 1 49 48 68 92 37 9 12 34 43 121 153 201 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 27.8 27.3 26.0 25.9 26.2 26.3 26.8 27.0 27.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 135 135 137 140 137 131 116 113 115 116 123 125 129 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.3 -55.0 -54.9 -54.8 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -55.4 -55.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 55 54 54 56 53 54 53 56 52 47 44 43 43 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 12 10 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -59 -72 -86 -85 -76 -53 -110 -170 -147 -125 -104 -85 -92 -68 -6 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 15 11 -1 17 21 -7 -7 -21 -48 -29 -15 -20 -13 8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 0 -3 -2 -3 -1 -6 2 5 -3 -4 2 -1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1625 1689 1750 1762 1780 2020 2379 2166 1811 1532 1382 1408 1632 1804 1936 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.7 18.7 19.7 20.6 23.3 25.7 28.0 30.2 30.1 28.2 26.6 25.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.4 43.8 44.1 44.4 44.6 43.3 40.4 37.3 32.6 29.5 28.8 29.8 32.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 12 16 18 20 17 10 9 9 12 12 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 29 28 25 25 18 10 3 0 0 0 1 2 6 8 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -8. -14. -20. -22. -24. -26. -27. -27. -26. -26. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.7 43.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122025 LORENZO 10/14/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.69 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.12 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.67 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.39 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.66 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 14.3% 10.0% 7.9% 5.9% 11.5% 12.6% 18.7% Logistic: 1.1% 2.8% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 1.3% 1.3% 2.6% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.8% 3.9% 2.9% 2.1% 4.3% 4.7% 7.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 3.4% 2.4% 1.9% 1.0% 2.1% 2.3% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122025 LORENZO 10/14/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122025 LORENZO 10/14/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 51 51 50 49 47 45 45 47 49 51 53 56 59 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 49 49 48 47 45 43 43 45 47 49 51 54 57 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 45 44 42 40 40 42 44 46 48 51 54 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 38 36 34 34 36 38 40 42 45 48 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT