* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/22/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 53 56 61 66 73 80 83 86 93 97 99 105 108 108 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 53 56 61 66 73 80 83 86 93 97 99 105 108 101 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 47 48 51 56 64 74 83 91 99 104 109 111 105 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 21 19 17 16 11 6 2 6 5 7 6 12 18 19 30 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 1 4 4 1 5 7 11 3 2 5 0 -1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 283 283 271 268 269 258 293 239 305 322 299 282 269 241 227 219 221 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 168 168 167 167 167 167 168 166 167 167 168 169 168 169 170 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 9 8 5 700-500 MB RH 77 77 79 83 80 75 69 68 66 63 66 63 58 49 37 32 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 14 14 16 18 20 23 24 26 29 32 34 40 45 50 850 MB ENV VOR 74 77 81 88 97 121 126 147 170 167 169 162 171 187 169 56 47 200 MB DIV 76 94 107 83 98 108 75 87 71 69 63 44 49 19 14 -17 5 700-850 TADV 0 3 2 4 6 4 1 0 0 -2 0 -1 3 0 -1 -9 -24 LAND (KM) 271 328 340 327 315 262 240 211 148 120 124 116 99 71 69 17 75 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.9 17.0 16.9 16.9 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.5 73.9 74.3 74.5 74.7 74.7 74.9 75.0 75.3 75.6 75.7 75.9 76.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 1 2 3 4 3 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 67 71 75 77 78 79 81 81 81 82 82 83 81 77 78 82 76 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 10. 15. 16. 17. 25. 29. 32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 10. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 21. 28. 35. 38. 41. 48. 52. 54. 60. 63. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.3 73.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/22/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.42 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 73.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.47 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.15 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.89 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.55 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.69 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 31.1% 15.4% 9.8% 7.6% 12.9% 14.3% 26.2% Logistic: 5.9% 15.2% 5.1% 6.0% 4.9% 12.7% 12.3% 15.7% Bayesian: 2.0% 3.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 1.0% Consensus: 4.4% 16.6% 7.1% 5.4% 4.2% 8.7% 8.9% 14.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% 3.0% 7.0% SDCON: 2.7% 11.8% 4.5% 3.2% 2.6% 6.8% 5.9% 10.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/22/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/22/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 50 53 56 61 66 73 80 83 86 93 97 99 105 108 101 18HR AGO 45 44 47 50 53 58 63 70 77 80 83 90 94 96 102 105 98 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 47 52 57 64 71 74 77 84 88 90 96 99 92 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 43 48 55 62 65 68 75 79 81 87 90 83 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT