* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/22/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 52 55 62 69 74 81 86 94 99 105 110 111 107 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 49 52 55 62 69 74 81 86 94 99 105 110 111 91 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 46 47 49 53 59 65 73 81 89 96 104 106 97 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 20 16 10 10 7 7 8 11 10 7 10 21 18 26 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 5 8 -2 1 3 9 3 1 1 5 -6 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 284 269 270 269 278 268 302 302 310 299 316 271 232 228 216 225 242 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 166 166 166 167 167 167 167 168 168 169 165 165 167 172 173 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 7 700-500 MB RH 76 77 81 81 78 73 71 69 67 66 65 60 53 44 34 24 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 17 16 19 20 20 22 24 27 29 34 41 44 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 87 95 101 111 128 141 155 161 172 159 161 170 101 51 31 2 200 MB DIV 107 115 81 86 93 80 102 100 95 65 70 49 27 8 12 -2 0 700-850 TADV 4 7 9 7 7 4 2 -1 -1 -3 0 0 0 -2 -8 -9 -3 LAND (KM) 304 335 366 355 337 294 256 239 198 181 175 171 203 229 201 69 -17 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.0 74.2 74.4 74.5 74.7 74.7 74.8 75.0 75.4 75.9 76.4 77.2 78.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 69 72 74 76 78 79 80 82 85 86 83 76 72 73 79 87 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. -0. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 18. 25. 28. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 24. 29. 36. 41. 49. 54. 60. 65. 66. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.3 74.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/22/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.40 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 73.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.48 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.03 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.90 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.58 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.65 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.5% 10.2% 7.4% 5.7% 11.4% 13.5% 24.9% Logistic: 1.5% 4.8% 1.2% 1.3% 0.9% 4.5% 9.7% 13.8% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% 3.1% Consensus: 0.9% 7.0% 3.8% 2.9% 2.2% 5.3% 8.0% 13.9% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% SDCON: 1.4% 6.5% 3.4% 1.9% 1.6% 3.6% 5.0% 7.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/22/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/22/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 49 52 55 62 69 74 81 86 94 99 105 110 111 91 18HR AGO 45 44 45 47 50 53 60 67 72 79 84 92 97 103 108 109 89 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 46 49 56 63 68 75 80 88 93 99 104 105 85 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 41 48 55 60 67 72 80 85 91 96 97 77 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT