* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/23/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 52 59 65 70 76 83 89 94 102 107 109 107 101 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 49 52 59 65 70 76 83 89 94 102 107 109 107 101 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 46 48 52 58 64 71 79 84 88 94 97 96 87 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 13 8 5 8 8 10 9 14 9 8 15 18 26 32 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 7 8 5 -1 2 6 11 3 2 0 -2 -2 -1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 279 280 285 293 261 294 278 302 299 290 288 249 213 210 215 228 234 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 166 165 165 165 166 167 168 168 168 166 165 165 167 170 170 170 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 10 10 11 9 9 7 7 700-500 MB RH 75 80 80 76 73 71 69 67 61 60 55 49 44 40 37 32 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 13 14 15 17 19 18 20 22 25 26 31 36 40 41 41 850 MB ENV VOR 86 108 113 112 127 144 151 169 168 163 155 123 57 31 32 4 -23 200 MB DIV 104 83 100 106 104 67 107 72 57 39 23 14 22 25 14 20 13 700-850 TADV 10 10 8 7 3 2 -1 3 -5 -4 -4 -2 -2 -3 -5 -7 -3 LAND (KM) 332 351 370 377 361 327 277 218 200 187 193 213 237 214 117 109 34 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.5 74.6 74.8 74.8 74.8 75.0 75.0 75.4 76.1 76.7 77.1 77.7 78.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 4 5 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 71 73 75 76 77 80 81 85 85 81 78 74 70 73 83 85 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. 37. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -6. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 15. 20. 23. 24. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 21. 25. 31. 38. 44. 49. 57. 63. 64. 62. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.3 74.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/23/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.51 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 74.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.48 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.05 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.59 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 30.0 to 151.8 0.63 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.1% 10.6% 7.6% 5.9% 12.1% 14.7% 25.5% Logistic: 0.9% 3.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 2.5% 8.4% 14.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.5% 4.3% Consensus: 0.5% 6.9% 3.9% 2.8% 2.1% 5.0% 8.2% 14.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% SDCON: 0.7% 5.4% 2.9% 1.9% 1.5% 3.5% 4.6% 8.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/23/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/23/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 49 52 59 65 70 76 83 89 94 102 107 109 107 101 18HR AGO 45 44 45 47 50 57 63 68 74 81 87 92 100 105 107 105 99 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 46 53 59 64 70 77 83 88 96 101 103 101 95 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 45 51 56 62 69 75 80 88 93 95 93 87 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT