* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/23/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 51 55 62 70 76 80 85 92 98 99 106 107 102 98 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 51 55 62 70 76 80 85 92 98 99 106 107 102 80 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 47 50 56 62 68 74 80 85 89 91 95 95 86 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 11 11 10 13 9 11 17 15 8 11 20 19 28 33 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 6 2 -2 1 -3 9 3 3 1 0 -2 -3 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 271 273 278 288 269 282 304 305 281 306 281 240 232 225 231 239 239 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 165 165 165 167 167 168 168 168 166 166 168 169 169 170 159 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 700-500 MB RH 77 78 76 73 72 71 68 65 62 60 52 47 40 33 28 23 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 14 14 18 19 20 21 24 27 29 30 36 41 41 42 850 MB ENV VOR 103 112 113 120 133 138 154 161 169 149 160 144 84 26 5 -27 -37 200 MB DIV 85 102 97 74 67 78 89 100 43 30 29 24 10 10 12 7 -18 700-850 TADV 5 3 4 3 3 6 0 -1 -4 -1 -3 -1 0 -2 -5 -7 -4 LAND (KM) 377 360 342 329 317 272 223 186 175 171 178 168 132 77 69 107 -22 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.2 16.4 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.6 74.8 74.9 75.0 75.0 75.1 75.3 75.7 76.4 77.1 77.6 78.1 78.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 4 3 2 3 4 4 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 75 77 79 80 80 82 84 85 82 77 74 72 76 82 86 78 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 28. 31. 33. 36. 36. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 0. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. 14. 16. 16. 23. 28. 25. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 25. 31. 35. 40. 47. 53. 54. 61. 62. 57. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.7 74.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/23/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.58 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 78.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.50 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.86 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.52 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.63 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 17.5% 11.6% 8.4% 6.6% 12.3% 15.2% 25.8% Logistic: 0.9% 4.6% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 1.8% 5.6% 11.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.2% 1.6% Consensus: 1.5% 7.5% 4.3% 3.0% 2.3% 4.7% 7.7% 12.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 9.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 7.0% 11.0% 4.0% SDCON: 1.7% 8.2% 4.1% 3.0% 1.6% 5.8% 9.3% 8.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/23/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/23/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 48 51 55 62 70 76 80 85 92 98 99 106 107 102 80 18HR AGO 45 44 46 49 53 60 68 74 78 83 90 96 97 104 105 100 78 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 48 55 63 69 73 78 85 91 92 99 100 95 73 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 46 54 60 64 69 76 82 83 90 91 86 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT