* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/23/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 42 44 47 54 61 68 70 71 76 82 90 95 93 90 91 V (KT) LAND 40 40 42 44 47 54 61 68 70 71 76 82 90 92 90 71 71 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 39 39 41 44 48 52 55 57 61 67 73 76 75 58 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 15 14 15 16 13 10 12 20 16 16 15 22 32 39 48 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 6 0 3 0 3 9 2 2 1 3 -1 -1 0 4 -2 SHEAR DIR 275 274 277 274 275 284 292 273 294 296 292 244 234 227 236 241 244 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 29.6 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 167 167 167 167 167 168 168 168 167 168 168 170 171 162 155 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 10 11 10 8 6 700-500 MB RH 77 75 72 70 71 68 67 64 63 57 53 46 41 33 23 19 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 13 14 17 18 21 20 20 23 26 31 36 40 43 50 850 MB ENV VOR 109 109 119 127 136 138 142 160 153 144 151 153 67 35 24 30 -28 200 MB DIV 96 81 58 59 62 86 91 65 52 33 25 -1 19 22 -16 -7 -8 700-850 TADV 6 6 4 4 4 2 2 -1 1 -3 -2 -3 -2 -6 -8 -13 -13 LAND (KM) 311 287 262 245 229 187 148 105 77 60 49 42 55 20 22 32 211 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.5 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.9 75.0 75.1 75.1 75.0 75.1 75.2 75.7 76.3 76.8 77.2 77.7 78.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 3 6 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 80 81 82 82 81 81 79 81 80 78 77 79 81 84 75 59 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 31. 34. 36. 36. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -12. -16. -22. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 6. 5. 4. 7. 10. 16. 22. 25. 27. 33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 3. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 14. 21. 28. 30. 31. 36. 42. 50. 55. 53. 50. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.4 74.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/23/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.46 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 81.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.52 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.86 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.46 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.69 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 15.8% 10.4% 7.6% 6.1% 11.0% 12.8% 21.8% Logistic: 2.7% 6.3% 2.4% 1.7% 0.9% 3.6% 5.1% 7.3% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% Consensus: 2.0% 7.7% 4.3% 3.1% 2.3% 4.9% 6.0% 9.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% SDCON: 1.5% 5.8% 3.1% 2.0% 1.1% 3.9% 4.0% 6.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/23/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/23/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 42 44 47 54 61 68 70 71 76 82 90 92 90 71 71 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 46 53 60 67 69 70 75 81 89 91 89 70 70 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 41 48 55 62 64 65 70 76 84 86 84 65 65 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 40 47 54 56 57 62 68 76 78 76 57 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT