* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/23/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 47 52 59 67 73 74 77 81 87 94 98 92 89 82 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 47 52 59 67 73 74 77 81 87 94 98 92 75 69 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 43 45 49 54 59 62 64 67 73 77 77 73 58 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 16 16 15 8 7 15 17 20 17 19 23 27 25 33 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 4 4 4 0 11 1 4 1 1 0 -2 -3 1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 269 255 261 279 291 289 287 278 292 283 271 235 222 224 219 221 235 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.4 29.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 167 167 167 168 168 168 168 168 168 167 168 170 171 166 146 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 73 70 69 69 70 69 65 62 59 52 46 42 37 34 29 23 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 15 18 19 22 22 21 22 24 28 33 38 37 37 36 850 MB ENV VOR 115 122 128 137 136 138 144 155 150 149 139 100 38 22 3 -6 -24 200 MB DIV 89 63 62 56 72 98 97 41 44 28 0 -1 21 0 18 -5 0 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 4 6 3 0 0 1 -2 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 284 260 238 223 208 157 100 76 50 64 95 101 56 25 7 91 381 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.8 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.4 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.3 75.2 75.2 75.2 75.2 75.3 75.8 76.4 77.0 77.7 78.3 78.7 78.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 6 10 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 83 83 83 83 82 81 81 80 78 77 77 80 83 84 75 56 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. 37. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 8. 9. 15. 20. 25. 22. 21. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 3. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 12. 19. 27. 33. 34. 37. 41. 47. 54. 58. 52. 49. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.5 75.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/23/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.45 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 82.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.53 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.15 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.45 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.69 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 15.3% 10.1% 7.4% 5.8% 11.3% 13.2% 22.5% Logistic: 2.2% 5.9% 2.2% 1.8% 0.8% 4.4% 5.3% 9.6% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% 0.6% Consensus: 1.9% 7.3% 4.2% 3.1% 2.2% 5.3% 6.4% 10.9% DTOPS: 2.0% 11.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 7.0% 16.0% 5.0% SDCON: 1.9% 9.1% 3.6% 2.0% 1.6% 6.1% 11.2% 7.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/23/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/23/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 47 52 59 67 73 74 77 81 87 94 98 92 75 69 18HR AGO 40 39 41 44 49 56 64 70 71 74 78 84 91 95 89 72 66 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 44 51 59 65 66 69 73 79 86 90 84 67 61 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 35 42 50 56 57 60 64 70 77 81 75 58 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT