* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/24/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 44 47 50 58 65 75 80 81 85 91 101 101 92 87 80 V (KT) LAND 40 41 44 47 50 58 65 75 80 81 85 91 101 101 80 74 67 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 43 44 48 53 61 65 68 72 79 85 83 66 56 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 17 15 13 8 6 12 10 12 13 19 22 27 37 44 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 6 2 0 5 9 7 4 4 7 4 2 5 4 1 6 SHEAR DIR 246 270 282 288 276 276 277 300 285 286 251 248 230 231 223 226 221 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.4 29.6 28.8 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 167 168 167 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 169 171 163 149 141 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 10 9 5 4 700-500 MB RH 68 68 70 70 70 68 64 61 58 55 49 39 31 23 22 21 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 19 19 22 22 27 27 26 27 31 39 41 40 40 40 850 MB ENV VOR 123 126 131 126 135 144 140 151 139 151 166 150 62 15 -18 -9 -2 200 MB DIV 71 65 60 74 68 96 72 52 41 34 11 6 -11 -2 4 9 -22 700-850 TADV 1 5 7 6 4 4 0 3 2 0 1 0 -4 -9 -16 -13 -37 LAND (KM) 214 221 228 204 181 133 80 41 49 64 55 22 41 15 69 286 488 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.4 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.3 17.3 17.6 18.1 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.5 75.3 75.2 75.2 75.2 75.4 75.8 76.6 77.2 77.7 78.2 78.5 78.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 5 9 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 84 83 82 82 81 80 79 78 77 77 80 84 83 74 55 47 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. 35. 36. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -15. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 12. 12. 10. 12. 16. 25. 27. 23. 22. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 3. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 18. 25. 35. 40. 41. 45. 51. 61. 61. 52. 47. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.1 75.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/24/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.46 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 82.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.53 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.21 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.19 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.44 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.68 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 14.4% 9.5% 6.9% 5.4% 10.8% 12.9% 22.8% Logistic: 1.6% 5.6% 2.2% 1.6% 0.7% 2.8% 3.1% 5.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.6% Consensus: 1.3% 6.8% 4.0% 2.8% 2.0% 4.5% 5.6% 9.7% DTOPS: 4.0% 15.0% 7.0% 2.0% 2.0% 5.0% 13.0% 33.0% SDCON: 2.6% 10.9% 5.5% 2.4% 2.0% 4.7% 9.3% 21.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/24/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/24/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 44 47 50 58 65 75 80 81 85 91 101 101 80 74 67 18HR AGO 40 39 42 45 48 56 63 73 78 79 83 89 99 99 78 72 65 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 42 50 57 67 72 73 77 83 93 93 72 66 59 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 41 48 58 63 64 68 74 84 84 63 57 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT