* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/24/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 46 50 54 64 70 76 78 78 78 82 85 81 75 69 54 V (KT) LAND 40 42 46 50 54 64 70 76 78 78 78 82 85 67 64 57 43 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 44 46 51 57 61 63 66 69 73 73 57 49 38 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 18 14 12 8 11 13 13 12 20 24 32 38 46 54 77 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 4 1 0 9 5 4 2 4 2 0 5 8 1 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 247 287 298 292 286 267 284 302 290 262 235 225 223 223 221 230 236 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.4 29.9 29.4 28.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 167 168 167 167 168 168 168 168 168 169 170 168 159 147 130 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 10 8 5 3 1 700-500 MB RH 66 67 68 70 71 66 65 61 55 52 45 37 29 23 18 17 8 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 18 18 22 23 24 23 23 23 26 31 32 32 32 28 850 MB ENV VOR 131 133 128 135 142 131 139 134 138 139 138 81 25 -6 -3 0 -29 200 MB DIV 64 74 74 54 84 104 60 61 34 27 1 8 0 18 15 -27 -36 700-850 TADV -1 5 7 4 5 3 2 2 0 2 1 -2 -10 -16 -18 -67 -39 LAND (KM) 221 209 198 171 144 103 87 61 76 86 66 39 87 -33 150 362 593 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.7 18.4 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.6 75.5 75.4 75.5 75.5 76.0 76.4 77.0 77.8 78.3 78.6 78.7 78.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 5 7 10 12 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 84 84 83 83 81 81 80 77 76 77 81 84 78 66 53 44 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 33. 36. 36. 37. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -3. -5. -9. -13. -19. -25. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 8. 7. 7. 10. 15. 15. 15. 13. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 24. 30. 36. 38. 38. 38. 42. 45. 41. 35. 29. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.0 75.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/24/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.48 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 83.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.54 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.46 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.69 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 17.0% 11.3% 8.3% 6.4% 11.6% 13.4% 22.9% Logistic: 2.5% 6.9% 2.8% 1.7% 0.7% 3.4% 3.6% 7.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% Consensus: 2.3% 8.5% 4.9% 3.4% 2.4% 5.1% 5.8% 10.2% DTOPS: 5.0% 20.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 22.0% 50.0% 11.0% SDCON: 3.6% 14.2% 6.4% 3.2% 1.7% 13.5% 27.9% 10.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/24/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/24/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 46 50 54 64 70 76 78 78 78 82 85 67 64 57 43 18HR AGO 40 39 43 47 51 61 67 73 75 75 75 79 82 64 61 54 40 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 44 54 60 66 68 68 68 72 75 57 54 47 33 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 44 50 56 58 58 58 62 65 47 44 37 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT