* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/24/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 54 62 72 77 84 87 89 86 87 89 82 72 62 53 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 54 62 72 77 84 87 89 86 86 65 60 50 40 31 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 43 46 50 59 66 73 79 83 85 84 65 57 47 36 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 11 9 7 2 8 7 10 11 15 22 28 38 53 67 72 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 2 0 4 9 7 8 6 5 6 7 8 9 2 7 2 SHEAR DIR 285 291 294 276 279 237 295 272 282 261 250 232 231 216 226 228 236 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.1 29.3 28.3 27.6 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 169 170 172 158 144 135 115 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.1 -50.0 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 9 9 11 10 11 9 7 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 70 70 72 72 71 66 67 62 59 54 48 36 23 19 17 22 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 18 19 22 25 23 27 28 29 28 30 34 33 31 30 29 850 MB ENV VOR 140 133 134 138 140 135 137 126 133 131 123 131 39 0 19 33 16 200 MB DIV 76 76 64 80 133 83 79 42 27 -3 -1 -6 7 -16 -21 -50 -38 700-850 TADV 5 7 4 4 4 2 4 1 1 1 2 -4 -13 -27 -53 -52 -25 LAND (KM) 257 239 220 195 164 130 120 104 110 95 38 53 -16 177 431 778 843 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.9 17.2 17.9 19.0 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.0 75.0 74.9 75.0 75.2 75.8 76.4 77.2 77.9 78.3 78.3 77.9 77.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 7 11 14 17 20 21 HEAT CONTENT 80 80 79 79 80 82 80 75 74 76 82 79 69 53 38 16 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 25. 28. 31. 34. 36. 35. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. -5. -11. -18. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 6. 10. 12. 13. 11. 13. 16. 14. 10. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 2. 1. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 15. 15. 12. 7. 3. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 22. 32. 37. 44. 47. 49. 46. 47. 49. 42. 32. 22. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.9 75.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/24/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.57 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 79.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.51 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.78 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.53 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.69 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 40.4% 22.0% 9.8% 7.7% 13.6% 21.2% 32.4% Logistic: 11.6% 32.7% 16.6% 4.6% 2.4% 7.9% 10.1% 14.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 4.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 4.1% 5.1% Consensus: 6.1% 25.8% 13.3% 5.0% 3.4% 7.4% 11.8% 17.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 23.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% 32.0% SDCON: 4.5% 24.4% 8.6% 3.0% 2.2% 4.7% 8.4% 24.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/24/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/24/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 48 54 62 72 77 84 87 89 86 86 65 60 50 40 31 18HR AGO 40 39 43 49 57 67 72 79 82 84 81 81 60 55 45 35 26 12HR AGO 40 37 36 42 50 60 65 72 75 77 74 74 53 48 38 28 19 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 38 48 53 60 63 65 62 62 41 36 26 16 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT