* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/24/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 65 74 83 94 100 102 102 96 89 83 81 76 69 62 50 V (KT) LAND 50 57 65 74 83 94 100 102 102 96 89 82 67 61 55 47 36 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 60 66 72 86 97 101 103 102 98 89 70 65 59 52 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 9 9 5 5 5 7 9 12 15 18 19 28 35 56 84 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 0 1 7 5 7 2 5 7 4 7 9 1 5 6 2 SHEAR DIR 290 282 264 266 285 265 295 287 304 266 239 235 216 211 215 213 221 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.4 29.4 29.6 30.0 30.3 30.3 29.6 28.5 28.1 25.9 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 167 168 168 167 156 155 159 166 169 172 164 147 141 116 110 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 9 8 8 7 5 3 700-500 MB RH 72 75 75 74 73 70 70 68 67 62 55 43 30 23 22 30 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 20 22 25 27 28 30 29 29 28 30 29 26 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR 130 133 123 129 126 132 120 124 118 111 99 110 116 108 114 116 27 200 MB DIV 94 76 83 136 134 77 88 31 29 6 -8 26 49 45 48 29 14 700-850 TADV 8 5 6 6 6 3 5 4 3 4 1 1 1 -7 -28 -16 -23 LAND (KM) 263 244 226 213 203 190 148 142 128 86 1 66 51 298 663 940 995 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.5 16.6 17.1 17.9 19.3 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.3 74.1 74.0 74.3 74.5 75.2 75.9 76.8 77.3 77.7 77.8 77.1 75.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 6 11 15 17 19 20 21 HEAT CONTENT 74 72 71 74 75 81 83 78 75 75 80 75 61 43 19 7 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 66.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 27. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 0. -2. -7. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 12. 10. 9. 10. 7. 3. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 17. 25. 25. 21. 12. 5. -3. -9. -13. -16. -16. -17. -18. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 24. 33. 44. 50. 52. 52. 46. 39. 33. 31. 26. 19. 12. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.7 74.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/24/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 14.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.64 6.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 73.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.47 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 7.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 4.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.61 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.61 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 5.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 45% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 61.6% 45.3% 30.8% 21.4% 44.5% 40.7% 38.6% Logistic: 23.3% 50.7% 29.3% 20.4% 12.4% 22.5% 18.6% 27.0% Bayesian: 12.7% 29.6% 11.8% 11.4% 10.0% 5.5% 1.9% 7.3% Consensus: 16.7% 47.3% 28.8% 20.9% 14.6% 24.2% 20.4% 24.3% DTOPS: 38.0% 97.0% 85.0% 40.0% 18.0% 97.0% 82.0% 48.0% SDCON: 27.3% 72.1% 56.9% 30.4% 16.3% 60.6% 51.2% 36.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/24/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/24/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 9( 11) 16( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 57 65 74 83 94 100 102 102 96 89 82 67 61 55 47 36 18HR AGO 50 49 57 66 75 86 92 94 94 88 81 74 59 53 47 39 28 12HR AGO 50 47 46 55 64 75 81 83 83 77 70 63 48 42 36 28 17 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 49 60 66 68 68 62 55 48 33 27 21 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT