* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/25/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 71 78 84 94 96 95 93 83 80 79 70 67 58 46 35 V (KT) LAND 55 63 71 78 84 94 96 95 93 83 74 58 54 50 41 30 19 V (KT) LGEM 55 62 68 74 79 88 92 94 94 91 82 65 63 55 44 31 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 10 8 6 9 7 13 12 18 23 22 33 48 66 89 104 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 3 8 7 6 7 2 4 5 3 7 5 4 6 -9 -28 SHEAR DIR 276 272 270 274 248 260 241 272 262 250 235 231 216 228 235 250 262 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.3 29.3 29.8 30.1 30.3 30.2 30.0 28.7 28.1 26.0 25.5 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 168 166 162 153 153 163 168 169 171 171 149 141 118 115 103 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 9 8 5 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 71 71 70 67 68 66 65 60 55 48 37 30 27 28 18 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 20 20 23 24 24 24 21 23 26 24 26 25 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 128 122 125 121 124 132 115 113 111 102 117 117 82 -12 -67 -148 -136 200 MB DIV 69 86 101 84 97 73 50 37 12 13 15 31 49 8 -14 -70 -55 700-850 TADV 3 5 4 8 2 5 3 3 2 2 1 2 -2 -6 -32 -52 -73 LAND (KM) 221 205 191 176 154 123 128 98 80 32 29 -47 223 526 933 1009 715 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.8 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.7 18.7 20.4 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.7 74.8 74.9 75.2 75.5 76.1 76.6 77.4 78.0 78.0 77.3 76.0 74.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 2 4 8 13 17 19 22 28 29 HEAT CONTENT 77 77 78 80 82 81 79 74 75 79 77 68 48 24 12 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 60.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. 21. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -21. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 2. 6. 2. 4. 1. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 10. 15. 22. 23. 18. 11. 4. -2. -8. -11. -14. -14. -15. -16. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 23. 29. 39. 41. 40. 38. 28. 25. 24. 15. 12. 3. -9. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.2 74.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/25/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 15.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.62 6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 78.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.51 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 4.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.80 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.53 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.54 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 5.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 43% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.1% 58.1% 43.3% 30.7% 20.8% 43.4% 31.2% 26.4% Logistic: 16.6% 38.4% 23.7% 17.1% 7.4% 16.4% 14.1% 13.4% Bayesian: 16.6% 24.9% 10.7% 7.6% 3.0% 5.3% 6.4% 1.0% Consensus: 16.8% 40.5% 25.9% 18.5% 10.4% 21.7% 17.3% 13.6% DTOPS: 23.0% 88.0% 68.0% 43.0% 18.0% 93.0% 89.0% 42.0% SDCON: 19.9% 64.2% 46.9% 30.7% 14.2% 57.3% 53.1% 27.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/25/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/25/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 9( 13) 16( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 12( 14) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 63 71 78 84 94 96 95 93 83 74 58 54 50 41 30 19 18HR AGO 55 54 62 69 75 85 87 86 84 74 65 49 45 41 32 21 DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 58 64 74 76 75 73 63 54 38 34 30 21 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 51 61 63 62 60 50 41 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT