* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/25/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 72 77 83 90 91 95 92 85 84 81 75 70 63 53 41 V (KT) LAND 60 66 72 77 83 90 91 95 92 79 77 64 58 53 46 36 24 V (KT) LGEM 60 65 70 75 79 85 88 91 92 82 80 67 62 55 47 38 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 8 5 6 6 9 10 15 18 21 20 29 39 56 75 97 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 6 6 5 9 3 4 8 7 7 13 5 0 3 0 -12 SHEAR DIR 273 294 292 256 271 292 258 274 269 247 245 223 215 219 233 245 250 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.6 29.9 30.1 30.1 30.2 29.3 28.1 27.1 26.0 24.3 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 164 160 155 152 159 164 169 170 171 159 141 129 118 104 103 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 8 7 7 5 2 0 700-500 MB RH 70 72 69 67 67 65 65 62 60 54 45 32 25 22 30 40 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 20 23 25 23 26 25 22 24 25 25 25 23 20 15 850 MB ENV VOR 127 133 119 125 136 118 113 117 123 103 109 106 77 55 32 38 61 200 MB DIV 83 102 71 85 73 83 26 47 -2 23 22 54 49 22 21 61 30 700-850 TADV 4 6 8 3 3 8 4 3 6 6 4 4 -5 -7 11 19 54 LAND (KM) 220 197 169 152 138 120 115 95 12 38 9 134 370 788 1013 986 756 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.8 16.7 17.0 17.7 18.7 19.9 21.9 24.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.9 75.1 75.4 75.6 75.9 76.4 77.1 77.6 77.3 76.8 76.1 74.7 72.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 5 6 10 15 18 21 22 22 21 HEAT CONTENT 79 80 82 82 82 80 76 74 78 75 71 57 35 16 4 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 18. 18. 15. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -8. -13. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 6. 4. -0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 15. 15. 12. 7. 3. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 23. 30. 31. 35. 32. 25. 24. 21. 15. 10. 3. -7. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.3 74.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/25/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.65 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 81.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.52 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 4.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.19 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.51 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.47 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 47.1% 33.2% 23.1% 17.6% 26.4% 20.6% 23.0% Logistic: 6.1% 19.8% 10.0% 6.1% 2.7% 9.0% 7.4% 7.1% Bayesian: 6.1% 4.0% 1.6% 0.8% 0.2% 2.0% 2.7% 1.4% Consensus: 6.8% 23.6% 14.9% 10.0% 6.8% 12.5% 10.3% 10.5% DTOPS: 39.0% 93.0% 84.0% 55.0% 51.0% 96.0% 89.0% 23.0% SDCON: 22.9% 58.3% 49.4% 32.5% 28.9% 54.2% 49.6% 16.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/25/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/25/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 9( 13) 12( 23) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 3( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 66 72 77 83 90 91 95 92 79 77 64 58 53 46 36 24 18HR AGO 60 59 65 70 76 83 84 88 85 72 70 57 51 46 39 29 17 12HR AGO 60 57 56 61 67 74 75 79 76 63 61 48 42 37 30 20 DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 56 63 64 68 65 52 50 37 31 26 19 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT