* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/25/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 70 76 82 89 90 89 86 79 77 73 67 63 54 42 34 V (KT) LAND 60 65 70 76 82 89 90 89 72 73 65 62 56 51 42 30 22 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 67 71 76 82 85 86 71 76 67 64 58 52 44 36 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 7 9 9 7 12 13 17 21 20 27 30 39 53 60 79 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 6 1 3 8 3 4 7 5 5 7 0 6 12 12 -5 SHEAR DIR 290 292 271 276 285 255 269 270 255 251 237 215 217 217 229 234 247 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.4 28.7 28.0 26.5 25.5 24.4 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 162 155 153 155 160 166 170 171 159 149 139 122 113 104 100 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -50.8 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 8 7 7 6 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 71 68 67 68 67 63 63 61 56 49 39 32 26 28 33 26 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 20 23 24 24 22 22 20 21 22 21 22 20 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 132 122 126 133 127 115 115 113 108 100 90 74 22 47 42 56 11 200 MB DIV 112 78 76 66 71 55 23 32 27 22 42 37 42 44 36 5 14 700-850 TADV 5 8 3 5 2 4 3 3 5 3 1 -4 -17 -19 -69 -97 -4 LAND (KM) 220 193 169 148 133 120 95 42 -15 52 84 246 584 1003 1135 1035 879 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.9 17.4 18.2 19.5 21.3 23.5 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.0 75.3 75.6 75.9 76.2 76.8 77.3 77.3 76.9 75.9 74.5 72.6 70.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 6 9 12 15 18 20 21 21 19 HEAT CONTENT 79 82 83 83 81 78 75 77 77 72 60 45 24 10 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 17. 16. 13. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -4. -4. -3. -5. -4. -8. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 15. 15. 12. 7. 3. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 22. 29. 30. 29. 26. 19. 17. 13. 7. 3. -6. -18. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.3 75.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/25/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.63 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 81.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.53 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 4.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.13 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.50 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.46 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 44.8% 30.9% 22.9% 18.0% 21.8% 15.3% 20.7% Logistic: 6.2% 15.2% 7.8% 6.0% 2.7% 8.4% 7.5% 4.6% Bayesian: 4.7% 2.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 1.4% 2.0% 0.5% Consensus: 6.3% 20.9% 13.2% 9.9% 7.0% 10.5% 8.2% 8.6% DTOPS: 19.0% 92.0% 69.0% 35.0% 20.0% 81.0% 80.0% 7.0% SDCON: 12.6% 56.4% 41.1% 22.4% 13.5% 45.7% 44.1% 7.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/25/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/25/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 8( 12) 11( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 4( 8) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 65 70 76 82 89 90 89 72 73 65 62 56 51 42 30 22 18HR AGO 60 59 64 70 76 83 84 83 66 67 59 56 50 45 36 24 16 12HR AGO 60 57 56 62 68 75 76 75 58 59 51 48 42 37 28 16 DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 56 63 64 63 46 47 39 36 30 25 16 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT