* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/25/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 82 88 96 101 107 107 104 98 89 80 75 67 61 52 49 41 V (KT) LAND 75 82 88 96 101 107 107 104 86 77 61 56 48 42 33 29 22 V (KT) LGEM 75 81 87 91 95 101 104 105 89 86 73 68 61 54 47 41 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 9 9 6 10 10 14 15 18 21 23 24 40 46 60 80 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 1 5 9 3 6 1 5 4 4 4 6 7 8 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 286 273 268 277 275 245 255 242 237 241 233 237 238 236 241 250 251 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.5 28.7 28.0 26.3 24.8 23.9 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 160 161 164 168 168 169 170 171 162 149 140 121 108 101 113 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 67 66 65 67 68 64 56 51 48 47 46 38 26 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 19 23 22 24 25 26 26 24 23 25 24 24 20 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 114 119 129 126 115 111 114 113 115 102 78 29 1 21 61 87 157 200 MB DIV 85 79 57 83 85 31 48 19 22 19 31 47 67 62 75 64 34 700-850 TADV 9 6 4 7 7 3 4 5 6 7 5 8 11 20 -30 -31 -47 LAND (KM) 181 161 148 133 119 104 81 6 14 18 89 309 667 1079 1145 1005 907 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.8 17.1 17.8 18.5 19.8 21.7 24.0 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.2 75.6 75.9 76.2 76.5 77.1 77.5 77.4 76.9 75.8 74.2 72.2 69.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 6 10 13 16 18 21 22 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 80 82 83 81 79 76 75 78 76 71 58 40 22 7 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 4. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 1. -1. 1. -1. -2. -9. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 10. 15. 22. 22. 18. 11. 4. -2. -7. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 21. 26. 32. 32. 29. 23. 14. 5. 0. -8. -14. -23. -26. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 16.6 75.2 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/25/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 14.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.57 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 81.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.52 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 6.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 4.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.49 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.35 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 5.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.8% 54.1% 43.1% 35.7% 24.4% 28.8% 17.2% 21.0% Logistic: 27.9% 36.8% 27.4% 22.8% 10.5% 11.3% 6.8% 3.0% Bayesian: 23.2% 20.4% 20.0% 28.1% 17.7% 4.9% 1.2% 0.1% Consensus: 26.3% 37.1% 30.2% 28.9% 17.5% 15.0% 8.4% 8.0% DTOPS: 62.0% 96.0% 91.0% 71.0% 57.0% 95.0% 81.0% 4.0% SDCON: 44.1% 66.5% 60.6% 49.9% 37.2% 55.0% 44.7% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/25/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/25/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 11( 15) 23( 35) 27( 52) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 4( 5) 9( 14) 4( 17) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 82 88 96 101 107 107 104 86 77 61 56 48 42 33 29 22 18HR AGO 75 74 80 88 93 99 99 96 78 69 53 48 40 34 25 21 DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 79 84 90 90 87 69 60 44 39 31 25 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 70 76 76 73 55 46 30 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 82 88 79 73 69 69 66 48 39 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS