* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/26/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 99 105 108 112 113 112 104 98 91 84 78 70 58 54 47 42 V (KT) LAND 90 99 105 108 112 113 112 91 90 74 67 61 53 41 36 30 24 V (KT) LGEM 90 100 106 109 110 112 111 93 95 79 76 70 61 51 44 38 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 11 9 6 12 14 16 19 19 18 20 31 37 44 60 79 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 3 4 7 7 2 4 3 7 3 6 3 8 10 9 8 0 SHEAR DIR 277 288 274 280 254 264 250 252 243 250 234 242 240 236 231 251 265 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.2 29.6 28.9 28.3 26.5 26.2 24.6 24.0 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 162 165 168 167 168 170 171 163 152 143 121 119 107 104 89 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 6 5 4 3 3 1 700-500 MB RH 65 68 69 68 66 67 68 67 59 48 46 42 40 40 36 33 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 22 23 24 25 23 24 24 24 25 24 19 16 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 125 125 117 112 108 109 105 102 106 68 33 -38 -27 -14 0 14 122 200 MB DIV 96 72 73 66 49 46 23 25 9 28 40 49 42 26 44 55 67 700-850 TADV 3 7 9 8 4 3 4 4 7 6 2 2 6 -15 -30 -10 1 LAND (KM) 165 152 143 141 138 136 97 -17 75 40 187 542 926 1134 1239 1136 836 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.5 16.6 17.0 18.0 19.3 20.9 22.9 25.4 28.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.7 76.0 76.3 76.6 77.0 77.6 77.7 77.2 76.3 74.6 72.4 70.1 68.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 2 4 7 9 13 15 17 18 19 24 30 32 HEAT CONTENT 82 82 81 79 76 73 74 78 72 61 48 28 13 4 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -1. 0. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -11. -14. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 17. 13. 8. 3. -2. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 15. 18. 22. 23. 22. 14. 8. 1. -6. -12. -20. -32. -36. -43. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 16.5 75.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/26/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 19.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.56 6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 80.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.52 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 6.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.69 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.46 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 5.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 37.2% 55.5% 48.0% 40.3% 20.2% 22.5% 17.7% 0.0% Logistic: 34.1% 43.5% 33.6% 28.4% 12.0% 17.5% 8.9% 3.0% Bayesian: 34.4% 13.3% 15.3% 22.1% 10.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 35.2% 37.4% 32.3% 30.3% 14.3% 13.6% 8.9% 1.0% DTOPS: 77.0% 85.0% 75.0% 62.0% 49.0% 51.0% 9.0% 1.0% SDCON: 56.1% 61.2% 53.6% 46.1% 31.6% 32.3% 8.9% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/26/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/26/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 27( 36) 30( 55) 30( 69) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 5( 6) 5( 11) 2( 12) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 99 105 108 112 113 112 91 90 74 67 61 53 41 36 30 24 18HR AGO 90 89 95 98 102 103 102 81 80 64 57 51 43 31 26 20 DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 89 93 94 93 72 71 55 48 42 34 22 17 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 84 85 84 63 62 46 39 33 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 72 71 50 49 33 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 99 90 84 81 81 80 59 58 42 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 99 105 96 90 86 85 64 63 47 40 34 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS