* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/26/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 120 125 128 130 131 124 117 110 102 92 86 77 71 62 53 43 V (KT) LAND 110 120 125 128 130 131 124 108 86 82 72 66 57 51 42 33 23 V (KT) LGEM 110 121 126 127 126 125 119 105 89 86 82 77 68 57 46 37 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 8 7 10 8 16 18 14 14 15 21 30 38 54 64 78 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 6 5 2 6 2 5 4 6 3 2 12 10 10 5 10 SHEAR DIR 284 281 286 253 246 274 251 255 259 234 241 239 237 233 244 248 252 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.3 30.2 29.8 29.4 28.8 27.8 26.4 25.0 24.3 23.8 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 168 168 168 168 169 171 166 160 150 137 121 109 104 101 97 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 7 6 5 4 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 67 69 69 67 66 67 68 65 55 46 44 43 45 49 43 34 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 22 23 24 27 26 27 27 26 26 27 26 24 19 14 10 850 MB ENV VOR 123 113 105 102 110 110 104 106 97 65 21 -19 -7 -10 -1 22 57 200 MB DIV 73 68 70 63 56 49 -1 36 24 45 52 38 32 55 72 52 47 700-850 TADV 2 6 9 3 7 3 7 10 6 6 3 2 21 32 41 0 49 LAND (KM) 178 174 163 160 161 120 41 24 -33 98 313 673 1094 1218 1145 1091 912 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.8 17.5 18.5 20.2 22.0 23.9 26.4 29.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.1 76.5 76.8 77.0 77.3 77.7 77.6 76.7 75.5 73.8 71.8 69.4 66.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 3 3 5 8 11 13 15 18 20 21 22 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 83 81 78 77 75 73 77 74 67 53 41 23 7 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 5. 6. 4. 0. -5. -9. -13. -17. -21. -27. -32. -38. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -4. -5. -3. -0. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 4. 5. 5. 3. 3. 4. 0. -3. -11. -16. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 14. 11. 7. 2. -1. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 15. 18. 20. 21. 14. 7. -0. -8. -18. -24. -33. -39. -48. -57. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 16.3 76.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/26/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 21.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.63 7.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 78.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.51 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.95 8.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 279.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.64 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.44 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 43% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 5.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 43.1% 55.4% 50.1% 41.9% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 38.7% 38.0% 30.8% 18.9% 6.1% 9.1% 4.3% 0.7% Bayesian: 17.2% 0.8% 2.0% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 33.0% 31.4% 27.6% 21.0% 8.3% 3.0% 1.4% 0.2% DTOPS: 65.0% 62.0% 41.0% 20.0% 9.0% 7.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 49.0% 46.7% 34.3% 20.5% 8.6% 5.0% 1.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/26/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/26/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 38( 56) 43( 75) 45( 86) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 7 10( 16) 13( 27) 19( 41) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 120 125 128 130 131 124 108 86 82 72 66 57 51 42 33 23 18HR AGO 110 109 114 117 119 120 113 97 75 71 61 55 46 40 31 22 DIS 12HR AGO 110 107 106 109 111 112 105 89 67 63 53 47 38 32 23 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 102 103 96 80 58 54 44 38 29 23 DIS DIS DIS NOW 110 101 95 92 91 92 85 69 47 43 33 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 120 111 105 102 102 95 79 57 53 43 37 28 22 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 110 120 125 116 110 106 99 83 61 57 47 41 32 26 17 DIS DIS