* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/26/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 126 127 125 124 118 111 109 105 97 92 87 82 74 69 59 49 V (KT) LAND 120 126 127 125 124 118 94 100 81 73 68 64 58 51 45 35 25 V (KT) LGEM 120 127 128 126 122 116 94 100 83 78 73 67 61 52 44 37 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 7 11 12 11 14 14 16 16 15 22 34 41 41 52 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 12 7 4 1 4 5 6 2 6 4 4 8 12 17 10 -1 SHEAR DIR 283 285 261 246 253 224 231 216 231 228 229 239 252 256 255 236 248 SST (C) 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.1 29.5 28.7 28.1 26.5 25.6 24.6 24.1 23.5 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 167 168 168 168 168 170 172 161 149 141 122 114 106 102 98 94 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -50.7 -51.4 -51.7 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 66 67 68 71 65 52 49 48 52 54 48 33 27 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 22 22 24 26 26 29 29 26 28 29 28 24 21 15 10 850 MB ENV VOR 110 98 94 95 104 99 95 109 94 86 19 2 24 18 15 27 20 200 MB DIV 54 46 34 47 52 48 37 82 24 21 43 52 52 63 59 38 12 700-850 TADV 4 10 5 2 2 1 6 5 4 5 -2 6 32 50 64 -23 -50 LAND (KM) 164 143 126 119 120 66 -26 32 112 290 594 998 1113 1121 1153 1148 1262 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.8 17.3 18.2 19.7 21.7 23.9 26.1 28.9 32.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.4 76.8 77.1 77.4 77.7 77.9 77.3 76.1 74.5 72.6 70.4 67.7 64.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 4 7 11 13 15 17 20 21 21 21 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 81 78 75 74 73 76 78 71 58 41 22 10 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 2. -3. -10. -16. -23. -28. -34. -41. -48. -54. -59. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -5. -5. -3. -0. 1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 2. 4. 5. 2. -3. -9. -15. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 7. 5. 4. -2. -9. -11. -15. -23. -28. -33. -38. -46. -51. -61. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 16.4 76.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/26/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 14.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.55 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 76.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.49 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 278.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.64 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.35 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.4% 35.5% 32.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.5% 6.8% 4.0% 1.5% 0.4% 1.4% 2.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 15.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.5% 14.7% 12.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 16.0% 7.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 17.2% 10.8% 9.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/26/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/26/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 41( 60) 36( 75) 32( 83) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 5( 12) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 126 127 125 124 118 94 100 81 73 68 64 58 51 45 35 25 18HR AGO 120 119 120 118 117 111 87 93 74 66 61 57 51 44 38 28 18 12HR AGO 120 117 116 114 113 107 83 89 70 62 57 53 47 40 34 24 DIS 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 109 103 79 85 66 58 53 49 43 36 30 20 DIS NOW 120 111 105 102 101 95 71 77 58 50 45 41 35 28 22 DIS DIS IN 6HR 120 126 117 111 108 105 81 87 68 60 55 51 45 38 32 22 DIS IN 12HR 120 126 127 118 112 108 84 90 71 63 58 54 48 41 35 25 15