* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/26/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 123 123 123 120 113 107 105 100 100 94 87 77 71 65 64 59 V (KT) LAND 120 123 123 123 120 113 101 85 79 79 73 67 57 51 45 43 39 V (KT) LGEM 120 121 121 118 116 110 99 96 78 76 73 66 56 46 39 33 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 9 10 11 15 14 15 15 15 17 28 45 66 81 85 80 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 3 4 4 2 5 4 3 5 5 15 10 6 -2 -11 7 SHEAR DIR 292 258 250 254 232 239 232 215 231 246 243 235 231 228 242 257 272 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.0 29.3 28.3 27.9 26.0 24.4 23.6 23.4 19.3 19.6 POT. INT. (KT) 167 169 167 166 166 169 171 170 158 143 138 118 105 101 99 81 82 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -50.4 -50.0 -49.7 -49.5 -50.1 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 8 9 8 7 5 3 2 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 66 67 71 70 59 49 48 50 41 29 19 24 30 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 24 25 26 28 29 30 28 31 29 29 26 24 20 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 99 95 102 106 107 95 92 105 96 49 23 25 69 97 118 137 69 200 MB DIV 58 60 52 49 59 6 50 62 59 23 59 47 42 15 3 18 -22 700-850 TADV 8 5 3 2 4 5 6 5 5 0 -3 9 -20 -57 -98 -87 -97 LAND (KM) 150 140 142 134 129 79 14 -13 134 337 701 999 1007 878 769 795 1105 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.8 17.3 18.6 20.1 22.0 24.3 27.0 30.2 33.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.9 77.3 77.8 78.0 78.2 78.2 77.5 76.1 74.5 72.4 70.0 67.2 64.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 2 2 5 8 11 13 16 19 22 24 26 25 22 21 HEAT CONTENT 77 74 72 72 73 76 78 69 55 37 18 5 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 2. -3. -9. -16. -23. -29. -35. -42. -49. -56. -60. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -1. -0. 0. 2. 5. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 3. 6. 3. 3. -3. -6. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 3. 0. -7. -13. -15. -20. -20. -26. -33. -43. -49. -55. -56. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 16.4 76.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/26/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.58 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 73.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.47 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 305.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.61 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.39 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 16.6% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 2.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 8.0% 2.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.8% 7.0% 5.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 18.0% 13.0% 10.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 12.9% 10.0% 7.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/26/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/26/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 35( 56) 33( 71) 30( 80) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 9 4( 13) 11( 22) 7( 28) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 123 123 123 120 113 101 85 79 79 73 67 57 51 45 43 39 18HR AGO 120 119 119 119 116 109 97 81 75 75 69 63 53 47 41 39 35 12HR AGO 120 117 116 116 113 106 94 78 72 72 66 60 50 44 38 36 32 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 107 100 88 72 66 66 60 54 44 38 32 30 26 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 94 82 66 60 60 54 48 38 32 26 24 20 IN 6HR 120 123 114 108 105 101 89 73 67 67 61 55 45 39 33 31 27 IN 12HR 120 123 123 114 108 104 92 76 70 70 64 58 48 42 36 34 30