* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/27/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 126 127 126 124 115 112 104 97 94 90 82 75 76 76 79 76 V (KT) LAND 125 126 127 126 124 115 105 83 76 73 69 62 54 55 55 58 56 V (KT) LGEM 125 125 123 121 118 112 102 81 75 73 69 60 50 39 32 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 10 10 12 14 16 18 15 15 28 46 68 74 69 52 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 3 3 4 3 4 4 2 6 8 6 1 -3 -10 -3 7 7 SHEAR DIR 279 240 251 242 238 244 227 234 225 220 236 257 274 273 274 287 276 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.3 30.2 29.4 28.6 28.1 26.1 24.1 24.9 11.4 17.7 15.7 16.6 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 166 166 166 170 172 160 148 142 120 105 111 70 79 77 79 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.5 -50.3 -51.4 -51.1 -50.6 -53.0 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 66 66 68 68 69 71 66 52 44 41 45 50 42 49 50 50 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 24 24 27 27 30 28 26 27 28 28 26 24 20 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 95 100 102 98 101 93 89 84 87 30 37 48 28 62 81 66 35 200 MB DIV 64 74 73 69 54 27 68 18 18 42 73 85 123 96 64 41 74 700-850 TADV 5 3 0 3 4 5 4 3 0 -3 0 21 111 131 223 40 81 LAND (KM) 150 146 143 129 118 17 79 40 237 587 991 1015 729 468 717 1317 1127 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.8 16.9 17.8 19.2 21.1 23.4 26.3 30.0 34.5 39.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.3 77.6 77.9 78.0 78.2 77.9 76.8 75.2 73.5 71.1 67.5 62.8 56.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 2 3 6 10 13 16 21 27 32 30 26 29 36 39 HEAT CONTENT 74 73 72 72 73 78 72 60 44 20 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -12. -20. -29. -37. -44. -52. -55. -60. -62. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -10. -10. -8. -5. -3. -3. -2. 1. 6. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 7. 5. 2. 3. 4. 2. -2. -5. -11. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -1. -10. -13. -21. -28. -31. -35. -43. -50. -49. -49. -46. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 16.4 77.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/27/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 72.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.47 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 303.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.0% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 6.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/27/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/27/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 41( 63) 36( 77) 31( 84) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 67 73( 91) 74( 98) 15( 98) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 126 127 126 124 115 105 83 76 73 69 62 54 55 55 58 56 18HR AGO 125 124 125 124 122 113 103 81 74 71 67 60 52 53 53 56 54 12HR AGO 125 122 121 120 118 109 99 77 70 67 63 56 48 49 49 52 50 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 113 104 94 72 65 62 58 51 43 44 44 47 45 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 97 87 65 58 55 51 44 36 37 37 40 38 IN 6HR 125 126 117 111 108 102 92 70 63 60 56 49 41 42 42 45 43 IN 12HR 125 126 127 118 112 108 98 76 69 66 62 55 47 48 48 51 49