* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/27/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 131 131 129 125 116 110 99 97 90 82 71 65 62 63 63 66 V (KT) LAND 130 131 131 129 125 110 88 81 79 71 64 52 46 43 44 44 48 V (KT) LGEM 130 130 128 124 120 105 86 80 78 73 65 55 46 38 34 32 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 8 11 13 12 16 16 15 21 31 39 52 67 62 38 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 7 5 3 5 7 5 6 6 4 1 -2 -5 0 16 3 SHEAR DIR 250 242 238 237 251 233 229 241 224 228 253 270 270 264 268 249 231 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.3 28.3 26.2 25.6 23.8 23.2 20.0 17.6 16.2 16.6 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 166 168 169 171 168 159 144 120 116 103 99 85 79 77 78 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -50.4 -50.9 -50.0 -50.4 -51.6 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 7 6 3 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 66 68 67 68 71 70 59 49 48 48 52 48 40 40 53 65 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 26 28 29 27 30 27 30 29 29 25 23 20 17 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 105 107 99 96 93 80 90 73 27 8 42 36 48 100 139 157 122 200 MB DIV 78 62 84 63 26 79 67 23 21 67 61 96 119 88 101 126 89 700-850 TADV 2 1 7 4 7 5 8 6 0 0 13 58 59 81 104 71 57 LAND (KM) 171 149 125 94 64 18 -25 126 403 875 1088 973 735 660 1084 1595 886 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.4 18.6 20.2 22.1 24.8 28.2 32.0 36.0 40.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.7 77.9 78.1 78.1 78.1 77.3 76.0 74.2 71.9 68.8 64.8 59.7 53.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 5 9 11 15 19 24 28 31 30 29 30 33 34 HEAT CONTENT 72 72 72 74 76 76 68 53 31 14 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 3. 0. -6. -15. -25. -35. -45. -52. -60. -66. -71. -74. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -11. -8. -5. -4. -3. -1. 4. 9. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 4. -0. 3. 2. 1. -6. -9. -14. -18. -20. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -5. -14. -20. -31. -33. -40. -48. -59. -65. -68. -67. -67. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 16.3 77.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/27/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 73.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.47 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 299.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 12.0% 6.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 8.3% 3.4% 2.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/27/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/27/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 45( 69) 38( 81) 29( 86) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 4 10( 14) 3( 16) 1( 17) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 131 131 129 125 110 88 81 79 71 64 52 46 43 44 44 48 18HR AGO 130 129 129 127 123 108 86 79 77 69 62 50 44 41 42 42 46 12HR AGO 130 127 126 124 120 105 83 76 74 66 59 47 41 38 39 39 43 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 116 101 79 72 70 62 55 43 37 34 35 35 39 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 96 74 67 65 57 50 38 32 29 30 30 34 IN 6HR 130 131 122 116 113 114 92 85 83 75 68 56 50 47 48 48 52 IN 12HR 130 131 131 122 116 112 90 83 81 73 66 54 48 45 46 46 50