* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/27/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 141 136 132 122 108 100 91 83 76 64 57 59 58 56 52 50 V (KT) LAND 140 141 136 132 122 104 80 71 63 56 43 36 38 37 36 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 140 139 134 127 120 106 81 77 72 66 59 52 44 37 32 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 18 17 17 20 20 18 16 21 38 42 60 58 47 37 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 9 4 6 8 4 5 8 3 5 1 2 -13 0 3 8 7 SHEAR DIR 244 235 234 241 242 232 222 211 207 238 270 266 278 274 286 267 256 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.2 29.5 28.7 28.1 26.1 24.0 25.0 8.4 18.3 15.5 16.3 14.9 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 167 169 170 171 161 149 142 121 105 112 70 81 76 77 75 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -50.6 -51.8 -50.4 -52.0 -53.9 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 66 68 70 72 66 57 52 53 59 59 51 48 49 50 63 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 25 28 25 26 28 28 27 28 26 24 22 18 12 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 104 97 92 92 88 78 75 66 9 47 61 47 75 58 50 31 43 200 MB DIV 54 67 59 32 53 82 55 63 50 94 87 129 133 71 36 76 74 700-850 TADV 2 4 3 6 6 5 5 4 -5 0 20 94 208 156 53 58 36 LAND (KM) 167 143 123 69 17 68 18 226 580 999 1002 758 440 817 1445 1152 465 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.4 17.8 19.3 21.0 23.3 26.2 30.0 34.7 39.2 43.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.0 78.1 78.3 78.1 77.9 76.8 75.4 73.5 71.0 67.4 62.7 56.9 50.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 5 7 10 12 16 22 28 31 33 31 30 31 32 32 HEAT CONTENT 71 72 73 76 78 72 61 44 21 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -2. -10. -22. -34. -47. -58. -67. -71. -78. -83. -87. -86. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -12. -16. -22. -24. -21. -17. -13. -10. -7. -3. 4. 12. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. -0. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. -1. -1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -6. -9. -13. -18. -25. -31. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -4. -8. -18. -32. -40. -49. -57. -64. -76. -83. -81. -82. -84. -88. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 16.4 78.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/27/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 74.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 308.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/27/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/27/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 54 49( 77) 34( 85) 26( 89) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 7 5( 12) 0( 12) 0( 12) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 141 136 132 122 104 80 71 63 56 43 36 38 37 36 32 29 18HR AGO 140 139 134 130 120 102 78 69 61 54 41 34 36 35 34 30 27 12HR AGO 140 137 136 132 122 104 80 71 63 56 43 36 38 37 36 32 29 6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 120 102 78 69 61 54 41 34 36 35 34 30 27 NOW 140 131 125 122 121 103 79 70 62 55 42 35 37 36 35 31 28 IN 6HR 140 141 132 126 123 113 89 80 72 65 52 45 47 46 45 41 38 IN 12HR 140 141 136 127 121 117 93 84 76 69 56 49 51 50 49 45 42