* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/27/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 150 148 143 136 130 117 105 95 86 75 61 56 57 56 56 64 66 V (KT) LAND 150 148 143 136 111 110 87 77 68 57 43 38 39 38 38 46 48 V (KT) LGEM 150 147 141 132 108 108 88 81 76 68 60 52 43 37 35 37 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 18 16 13 17 18 16 16 28 35 48 50 42 38 38 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 3 3 6 6 7 3 5 3 5 0 -2 0 6 12 6 0 SHEAR DIR 252 243 250 240 240 225 227 226 241 266 271 263 266 261 250 244 245 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.0 28.1 28.0 27.0 25.8 23.9 20.7 18.9 16.9 15.6 14.1 14.0 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 169 170 171 170 140 140 129 118 104 88 83 78 75 72 72 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -50.7 -50.1 -50.5 -50.2 -49.7 -50.9 -53.4 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 67 68 71 71 72 63 55 54 55 54 46 40 42 52 56 53 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 27 27 28 28 28 28 27 27 24 23 21 17 14 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 98 91 88 81 76 63 65 27 14 47 69 66 87 114 117 113 151 200 MB DIV 62 63 57 44 62 70 57 42 67 57 87 97 115 99 85 76 52 700-850 TADV 6 4 6 6 8 8 11 3 -6 26 29 116 234 109 56 34 -9 LAND (KM) 164 128 95 21 -18 20 118 323 779 1038 889 635 600 1106 1466 880 339 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.8 18.3 19.8 21.7 24.2 27.6 31.8 36.6 40.9 44.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.3 78.3 78.3 77.9 77.5 76.3 74.7 72.6 69.6 65.5 60.3 53.8 46.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 5 7 8 11 14 18 24 30 33 33 32 29 28 25 24 HEAT CONTENT 71 73 75 78 78 70 57 37 16 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 1. 1. -0. -5. -16. -30. -45. -61. -74. -83. -89. -96. -101. -104. -103. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -11. -15. -19. -24. -25. -21. -16. -13. -9. -6. -1. 8. 16. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -7. -9. -13. -19. -22. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -14. -20. -33. -45. -55. -64. -75. -89. -94. -93. -94. -94. -86. -84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 150. LAT, LON: 16.5 78.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/27/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 150.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 289.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/27/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/27/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 78 64( 92) 0( 92) 29( 94) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 38 9( 44) 0( 44) 2( 45) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 150 148 143 136 111 110 87 77 68 57 43 38 39 38 38 46 48 18HR AGO 150 149 144 137 112 111 88 78 69 58 44 39 40 39 39 47 49 12HR AGO 150 147 146 139 114 113 90 80 71 60 46 41 42 41 41 49 51 6HR AGO 150 144 141 140 115 114 91 81 72 61 47 42 43 42 42 50 52 NOW 150 141 135 132 131 130 107 97 88 77 63 58 59 58 58 66 68 IN 6HR 150 148 139 133 130 125 102 92 83 72 58 53 54 53 53 61 63 IN 12HR 150 148 143 134 128 124 101 91 82 71 57 52 53 52 52 60 62