* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/28/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 150 147 144 139 134 121 110 98 88 71 58 59 56 59 62 65 60 V (KT) LAND 150 147 144 139 129 91 83 71 60 44 31 32 29 32 34 38 33 V (KT) LGEM 150 146 140 132 122 90 85 81 73 63 55 47 41 36 35 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 9 10 12 16 18 16 24 28 36 58 63 49 45 35 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 6 4 6 4 5 5 11 10 12 0 8 15 12 11 5 SHEAR DIR 244 246 240 220 209 225 220 236 249 266 263 271 273 273 267 252 257 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.3 29.6 28.4 28.2 26.1 24.3 25.1 10.2 18.4 14.0 12.6 13.4 12.8 POT. INT. (KT) 164 167 170 171 171 163 145 144 121 107 113 71 81 73 71 72 71 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -51.1 -50.6 -50.2 -49.7 -49.5 -47.8 -48.6 -50.7 -50.9 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.5 1.2 1.7 3.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 9 8 7 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 71 71 69 66 54 50 48 47 46 39 38 33 53 58 59 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 29 30 30 29 31 30 31 27 25 26 25 25 22 20 15 850 MB ENV VOR 97 89 85 79 78 74 55 19 39 66 102 81 133 152 157 206 208 200 MB DIV 76 73 49 51 43 52 58 33 47 81 81 114 57 21 44 39 30 700-850 TADV 6 6 5 3 1 8 5 0 20 30 123 196 51 -14 47 47 47 LAND (KM) 177 134 93 10 23 -57 190 491 953 998 758 490 866 1398 1133 583 78 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.3 18.0 18.7 20.5 22.7 25.6 29.7 34.4 39.2 43.0 45.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.6 78.5 78.4 78.0 77.6 76.1 74.3 71.8 68.3 63.3 56.9 49.6 41.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 6 8 10 13 16 22 29 33 34 33 30 28 27 26 24 HEAT CONTENT 71 73 75 79 77 64 48 23 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. -0. -5. -17. -31. -47. -63. -77. -83. -91. -97. -101. -103. -101. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -11. -13. -18. -20. -17. -14. -11. -7. -4. 1. 9. 19. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -10. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. -2. -1. -8. -12. -12. -13. -14. -17. -19. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -11. -16. -29. -40. -52. -62. -79. -92. -91. -94. -91. -88. -85. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 150. LAT, LON: 16.5 78.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/28/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 150.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 366.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.6% 4.3% 2.9% 2.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 1.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/28/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/28/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 78 67( 93) 44( 96) 0( 96) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 53 32( 68) 10( 71) 0( 71) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 150 147 144 139 129 91 83 71 60 44 31 32 29 32 34 38 33 18HR AGO 150 149 146 141 131 93 85 73 62 46 33 34 31 34 36 40 35 12HR AGO 150 147 146 141 131 93 85 73 62 46 33 34 31 34 36 40 35 6HR AGO 150 144 141 140 130 92 84 72 61 45 32 33 30 33 35 39 34 NOW 150 141 135 132 131 93 85 73 62 46 33 34 31 34 36 40 35 IN 6HR 150 147 138 132 129 98 90 78 67 51 38 39 36 39 41 45 40 IN 12HR 150 147 144 135 129 125 117 105 94 78 65 66 63 66 68 72 67