* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/28/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 150 148 147 143 136 122 111 102 83 68 64 63 61 68 68 71 67 V (KT) LAND 150 148 128 135 128 96 85 76 57 42 39 37 35 42 43 45 41 V (KT) LGEM 150 145 124 128 122 95 91 85 74 64 58 47 40 37 36 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 9 17 16 16 12 15 19 25 55 64 49 36 38 38 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 5 3 5 2 5 10 20 17 5 5 10 10 13 4 3 SHEAR DIR 244 245 220 219 223 219 227 233 258 267 268 276 266 256 259 248 255 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.2 28.3 28.1 27.6 25.7 23.8 20.6 15.6 12.9 12.2 13.8 13.6 12.7 POT. INT. (KT) 168 170 171 171 172 142 141 137 118 104 89 77 73 71 70 67 65 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -50.7 -50.9 -50.6 -50.5 -50.0 -49.8 -48.7 -47.2 -48.0 -50.2 -51.1 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 9 8 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 72 70 66 61 52 50 47 45 39 33 35 50 71 75 65 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 32 32 30 31 32 34 29 28 31 32 30 32 28 26 21 850 MB ENV VOR 88 83 81 74 64 72 35 22 47 62 54 120 165 185 206 160 111 200 MB DIV 93 75 83 94 80 83 42 42 59 85 107 87 76 55 44 36 40 700-850 TADV 6 8 6 4 7 6 -1 12 30 39 174 85 41 55 49 -3 23 LAND (KM) 128 55 -14 47 38 97 320 754 1028 925 616 664 1300 1129 634 378 280 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.9 19.6 21.8 24.2 27.6 32.0 36.5 41.1 45.4 49.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.4 78.1 77.8 77.2 76.6 75.1 73.1 70.2 65.5 59.7 52.8 44.5 35.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 11 14 18 26 31 34 36 37 33 26 17 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 72 76 79 74 71 56 38 15 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 150 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 1. 1. 0. -7. -18. -33. -50. -68. -81. -87. -93. -97. -101. -104. -102. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -14. -19. -18. -14. -11. -7. -5. -2. 4. 12. 21. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 3. -3. -6. -3. -3. -6. -4. -10. -12. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -7. -14. -28. -39. -48. -67. -82. -86. -87. -89. -82. -82. -79. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 150. LAT, LON: 16.9 78.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/28/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 74.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.98 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 150.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 424.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/28/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/28/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 78 0( 78) 43( 87) 19( 90) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 57 0( 57) 8( 60) 6( 63) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 150 148 128 135 128 96 85 76 57 42 39 37 35 42 43 45 41 18HR AGO 150 149 129 136 129 97 86 77 58 43 40 38 36 43 44 46 42 12HR AGO 150 147 146 153 146 114 103 94 75 60 57 55 53 60 61 63 59 6HR AGO 150 144 141 140 133 101 90 81 62 47 44 42 40 47 48 50 46 NOW 150 141 135 132 131 99 88 79 60 45 42 40 38 45 46 48 44 IN 6HR 150 148 139 133 130 130 119 110 91 76 73 71 69 76 77 79 75 IN 12HR 150 148 128 119 113 109 98 89 70 55 52 50 48 55 56 58 54