* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/28/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 155 154 150 144 136 122 110 93 73 58 61 65 62 64 65 66 63 V (KT) LAND 155 132 141 117 91 86 73 57 36 22 24 28 25 28 28 29 26 V (KT) LGEM 155 132 137 130 89 92 88 78 67 59 51 44 40 40 43 46 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 17 16 15 14 12 22 26 45 61 37 16 10 11 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 5 5 2 5 7 13 14 11 -1 0 -3 0 -3 1 7 SHEAR DIR 238 230 217 224 235 226 244 254 269 262 270 251 234 237 245 238 232 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.0 29.3 28.4 28.0 26.1 24.1 25.0 9.1 13.5 11.2 12.2 12.4 12.3 11.0 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 170 158 145 141 121 106 114 72 74 70 70 69 69 67 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -50.7 -50.5 -50.1 -49.6 -48.8 -48.3 -48.4 -49.1 -49.4 -49.6 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 68 65 61 53 50 46 46 41 34 42 50 62 63 69 76 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 32 31 30 32 32 32 28 28 32 34 29 26 23 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 85 78 72 74 81 62 22 34 72 74 173 201 205 231 238 189 143 200 MB DIV 89 99 85 62 80 56 26 52 87 101 92 84 32 17 34 36 5 700-850 TADV 9 7 5 11 7 6 3 41 90 125 162 7 -46 -63 -37 -24 -27 LAND (KM) 55 -25 67 2 -17 223 572 962 995 715 406 994 1382 855 514 382 355 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.3 19.0 20.0 20.9 23.1 26.3 30.1 34.9 40.2 45.7 49.7 52.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.1 77.6 77.0 76.4 75.8 74.1 71.6 67.8 62.5 55.8 47.9 39.4 30.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 17 23 29 35 39 37 32 27 22 19 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 76 78 73 69 60 46 20 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 7 CX,CY: 3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 150 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 1. 1. -1. -10. -23. -40. -59. -78. -88. -94. -98. -101. -105. -107. -104. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -7. -12. -16. -20. -18. -16. -14. -11. -8. -1. 6. 15. 22. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -8. -9. -5. -3. -10. -15. -19. -20. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -11. -19. -33. -45. -62. -82. -97. -94. -90. -93. -91. -90. -89. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 155. LAT, LON: 17.5 78.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/28/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 71.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.98 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 155.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 589.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/28/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/28/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 77 56( 90) 0( 90) 10( 91) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 49 13( 56) 0( 56) 6( 58) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 155 132 141 117 91 86 73 57 36 22 24 28 25 28 28 29 26 18HR AGO 155 154 163 139 113 108 95 79 58 44 46 50 47 50 50 51 48 12HR AGO 155 152 151 127 101 96 83 67 46 32 34 38 35 38 38 39 36 6HR AGO 155 149 146 145 119 114 101 85 64 50 52 56 53 56 56 57 54 NOW 155 146 140 137 136 131 118 102 81 67 69 73 70 73 73 74 71 IN 6HR 155 132 123 117 114 108 95 79 58 44 46 50 47 50 50 51 48 IN 12HR 155 132 141 132 126 122 109 93 72 58 60 64 61 64 64 65 62