* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/28/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 145 140 136 130 123 109 97 79 63 60 63 60 57 60 62 64 65 V (KT) LAND 145 154 131 101 105 91 79 60 45 42 45 42 39 42 44 46 47 V (KT) LGEM 145 147 134 92 97 90 82 72 63 53 44 38 36 37 39 40 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 19 17 16 16 16 18 30 44 55 48 30 20 23 32 36 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 6 3 3 9 5 12 9 0 11 10 6 5 13 17 1 SHEAR DIR 223 205 230 242 227 232 244 273 285 280 271 235 233 234 246 239 242 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.0 28.6 28.0 26.6 25.0 24.3 10.4 12.4 12.1 12.2 12.9 12.0 11.8 11.0 POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 167 153 147 140 126 113 108 72 73 72 71 69 67 67 67 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.8 -51.2 -51.2 -50.7 -51.0 -50.8 -50.5 -50.2 -51.3 -49.4 -47.7 -49.0 -50.4 -50.6 -52.2 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 0.9 2.0 1.6 1.7 2.7 2.7 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 64 60 54 53 53 54 53 48 43 48 59 74 71 75 70 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 28 31 29 28 30 31 29 28 31 31 29 27 24 22 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 80 77 72 68 66 21 13 69 63 43 110 171 197 166 107 125 111 200 MB DIV 112 125 79 81 65 44 67 91 101 161 96 95 52 25 43 49 22 700-850 TADV 6 3 13 13 10 9 17 40 163 295 165 -23 -59 -37 9 24 -11 LAND (KM) -13 74 -5 -2 131 398 871 1026 778 379 694 1322 1046 607 426 264 355 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 19.1 20.0 21.1 22.2 24.9 28.6 33.3 38.6 43.6 48.1 51.5 54.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.9 77.2 76.5 75.8 75.2 73.1 69.8 64.9 58.1 50.9 43.4 35.0 26.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 13 15 20 28 35 37 36 33 31 26 19 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 79 73 69 59 53 34 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 150 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -2. -9. -21. -38. -55. -71. -80. -85. -88. -91. -93. -95. -91. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -15. -18. -23. -23. -22. -22. -19. -12. -4. 3. 12. 21. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -13. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -5. -7. -4. -5. -8. -13. -16. -19. -21. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 10. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -15. -22. -36. -48. -66. -82. -85. -82. -85. -88. -85. -83. -81. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 145. LAT, LON: 18.2 77.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/28/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 66.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 145.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 660.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.24 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/28/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/28/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 27( 27) 12( 36) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 6( 6) 0( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 145 154 131 101 105 91 79 60 45 42 45 42 39 42 44 46 47 18HR AGO 145 144 121 91 95 81 69 50 35 32 35 32 29 32 34 36 37 12HR AGO 145 142 141 111 115 101 89 70 55 52 55 52 49 52 54 56 57 6HR AGO 145 139 136 135 139 125 113 94 79 76 79 76 73 76 78 80 81 NOW 145 136 130 127 126 112 100 81 66 63 66 63 60 63 65 67 68 IN 6HR 145 154 145 139 136 128 116 97 82 79 82 79 76 79 81 83 84 IN 12HR 145 154 131 122 116 112 100 81 66 63 66 63 60 63 65 67 68