* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/29/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 106 103 99 89 78 63 55 59 63 64 62 61 57 55 63 V (KT) LAND 110 108 77 83 79 69 58 43 35 39 43 44 42 41 37 35 44 V (KT) LGEM 110 107 77 82 81 77 70 60 52 44 39 37 35 36 36 37 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 17 17 18 18 30 40 54 49 27 21 14 17 22 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 3 0 4 5 6 11 3 7 11 7 2 8 13 3 -4 SHEAR DIR 218 236 250 236 234 244 260 280 278 278 231 218 246 250 254 240 234 SST (C) 30.0 29.8 29.1 28.6 28.3 27.7 25.8 23.9 21.2 12.6 11.1 11.1 12.6 11.8 11.8 11.1 9.1 POT. INT. (KT) 169 166 155 147 144 138 119 105 91 74 72 70 70 67 67 67 67 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -50.7 -50.6 -50.6 -50.6 -48.7 -48.9 -50.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.7 1.7 3.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 62 59 58 56 56 57 50 43 46 59 72 75 73 72 73 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 29 27 28 28 30 31 28 27 30 31 32 29 24 18 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 69 57 58 53 39 3 46 72 55 73 111 194 144 125 171 126 128 200 MB DIV 117 80 83 65 55 49 112 116 111 149 60 51 52 70 55 54 10 700-850 TADV 7 19 16 13 11 14 35 51 213 217 6 -35 0 -14 -29 -30 -23 LAND (KM) 43 11 -22 130 258 602 909 877 586 484 1141 1211 757 531 365 377 478 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.8 20.9 22.2 23.4 26.6 31.2 36.3 41.4 46.1 50.3 53.4 55.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.1 76.6 76.0 75.1 74.2 71.7 67.5 61.4 54.7 46.6 37.4 28.9 21.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 14 15 17 24 33 37 37 37 34 27 21 16 15 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 73 70 60 52 44 18 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 155 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -10. -20. -31. -37. -41. -43. -45. -45. -45. -46. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -20. -21. -18. -12. -5. -0. 6. 11. 16. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -11. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -7. -9. -7. -6. -6. -10. -17. -25. -30. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -11. -21. -32. -47. -55. -51. -47. -46. -48. -49. -53. -55. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 18.8 77.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/29/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.42 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.39 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 504.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.40 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.50 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 14.6% 10.5% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.5% 6.7% 3.7% 1.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 7.2% 4.8% 3.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/29/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/29/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 0( 29) 7( 34) 3( 36) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 12 0( 12) 2( 14) 0( 14) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 108 77 83 79 69 58 43 35 39 43 44 42 41 37 35 44 18HR AGO 110 109 78 84 80 70 59 44 36 40 44 45 43 42 38 36 45 12HR AGO 110 107 106 112 108 98 87 72 64 68 72 73 71 70 66 64 73 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 96 86 75 60 52 56 60 61 59 58 54 52 61 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 81 70 55 47 51 55 56 54 53 49 47 56 IN 6HR 110 108 99 93 90 84 73 58 50 54 58 59 57 56 52 50 59 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT