* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/29/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 106 102 99 88 73 60 63 66 73 72 63 58 53 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 93 92 88 85 74 59 46 49 52 59 58 49 44 39 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 83 91 90 88 81 68 59 51 45 42 38 35 32 33 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 18 17 19 24 36 54 47 42 24 23 26 25 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 2 0 3 6 4 11 -2 4 6 16 8 7 18 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 255 248 238 241 253 270 276 275 251 221 257 254 246 241 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.2 28.7 28.1 28.0 26.5 24.4 24.0 10.8 13.1 10.9 12.4 11.9 11.6 11.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 156 149 141 141 125 109 107 73 74 71 71 68 66 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -50.5 -50.7 -51.8 -50.8 -50.1 -51.0 -53.4 -54.9 -55.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 58 59 59 58 58 56 47 47 62 60 69 73 78 76 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 26 28 29 31 31 29 27 31 33 35 33 26 18 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 41 45 34 8 21 84 90 78 110 147 95 36 69 135 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 94 61 54 46 109 108 129 145 76 61 38 43 60 50 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 20 18 18 19 24 46 127 209 128 -6 60 32 16 -30 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 30 -5 127 259 409 906 960 638 235 870 1233 838 564 359 368 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.9 22.0 23.5 25.0 29.0 34.2 40.1 46.0 50.6 53.7 56.1 58.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.4 75.6 74.9 73.9 72.9 69.7 64.5 57.7 50.1 41.3 31.5 22.8 15.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 15 18 21 29 37 40 39 36 31 25 18 12 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 70 60 54 43 32 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 10 CX,CY: 6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 145 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 1. -4. -12. -24. -32. -39. -42. -45. -47. -46. -47. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -13. -18. -22. -25. -25. -18. -10. -3. 2. 7. 13. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -3. -6. -2. -1. 1. -2. -13. -23. -33. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -11. -22. -37. -50. -47. -44. -37. -38. -47. -52. -57. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 19.7 76.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/29/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.42 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 528.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.38 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.45 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.2 30.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 12.8% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 2.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 5.2% 3.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.3% 3.1% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/29/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/29/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 13( 38) 10( 44) 5( 47) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 93 92 88 85 74 59 46 49 52 59 58 49 44 39 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 110 109 108 104 101 90 75 62 65 68 75 74 65 60 55 16 16 12HR AGO 110 107 106 102 99 88 73 60 63 66 73 72 63 58 53 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 97 86 71 58 61 64 71 70 61 56 51 DIS DIS NOW 110 101 95 92 91 80 65 52 55 58 65 64 55 50 45 DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 93 84 78 75 68 53 40 43 46 53 52 43 38 33 DIS DIS IN 12HR 110 93 92 83 77 73 58 45 48 51 58 57 48 43 38 DIS DIS